Where does Iran stand on Syria’s fast-moving conflict?

As opposition fighters continue their blistering military offensive that aims to overthrow the government, Iran continues to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

As more Syrian cities fell to the armed opposition groups, the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, and Turkiye held Astana-style discussions in Qatar on Saturday.

After the meeting in Doha, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated to reporters that Syrian government and “legitimate opposition groups” need to strike up a political dialogue.

He met with his Syrian and Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad a day earlier, their statement saying “continuous coordination, cooperation and diplomatic engagement” is the only way to avoid further escalation.

Iran’s top diplomat stated at a joint press conference that his country would fight alongside Syria against organizations that “undoubtedly are carrying out an American-Zionist conspiracy.”

In an apparent attempt to stop this offensive from being seen as merely a continuation of the Syrian civil war, which had solidified al-Assad’s position after 13 years of fighting that had destroyed much of the nation, Tehran has stressed the idea that the rebels are foreign-supported.

Given the high level of tension caused by Israel’s brutal war against Gaza, Iran has also issued stern warnings that fighting may continue in Syria.

Lightning offensive

The opposition’s offensive began last week, shortly after Israel and Hezbollah reached a tense ceasefire agreement that has survived despite numerous violations.

It was launched from Idlib by the group controlling the governorate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with allied armed factions.

HTS was originally known as an al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra until its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, accepted a more nationalistic mission and rebranded as the organization in 2017. It was later revealed as HTS, ostensibly a more “moderate” group in the context of the factions fighting for Syria.

Al-Julani has been a key figure in a media campaign that has highlighted HTS’s transformational methods, including being featured on numerous videos in public in Aleppo, including this week after an Iranian lawmaker proudly declared his death in a Russian air strike.

He also made videos of himself speaking directly to Syrian and regional leaders and gave an interview to CNN on Friday, allowing it to report from Aleppo hours after the city was taken.

When asked why people should accept his reforms, he responded that HTS is still regarded as a terrorist organization by the UN, the US, and the EU, and that there is a $10 million reward for his actions. ”

He promised he would build an “institutions-based” Syria that would recognise the country’s ethnic, cultural and sectarian diversities.

Iran and Turkiye, in light of Syria

Araghchi and his counterpart in Turkiye on Monday for a reportedly tense discussion before the talks on Saturday. The Iranian foreign ministry has previously been reluctant to publicly criticize Ankara for backing HTS.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s long-time advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Akbar Velayati, made an apparent disbelief earlier this week about Turkey’s support for the Syrian offensive.

He said, “We did not believe that Turkiye would fall into the hole dug” by the US and Israel, implying that the changing reality in Syria is Western- and Israeli-backed and would harm the entire Muslim world.

In an ostensible move from calling the rebels “terrorists,” Iranian state television started referring to them as “armed groups” late on Friday.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, backed the rebel offensive during a speech on Friday, claiming to have contacted al-Assad to discuss a possible solution but was unsuccessful.

“Idlib, Hama, Homs, and of course, the ultimate target is Damascus,” Erdogan said. Our hope is that the Syrian march will not cause any problems or accidents. ”

Erdogan has been seeking to eliminate an armed Kurdish presence or territory on Turkiye’s borders, as the country tries to resolve a longrunning struggle against armed Kurdish separatists, the outlawed PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party).

Additionally, it wants to establish a “safe zone” in northern Syria to resettle the thousands of Syrian refugees who are currently staying in Turkiye.

Near Iran’s borders to the north, Turkiye is supporting the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed transport route linking Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenia’s Syunik Province, which would effectively connect Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Central Asia.

The corridor, if realized, would cut off Armenian control and cross a significant Iranian border with Europe.

According to Tehran-based political analyst Ehsan Movahedian, the main difference between the ongoing offensive in Syria and the 2011 conflict is the level of overt support that Turkiye has offered to anti-Assad forces.

The nature of the fighting in the civil war largely revolves around geopolitical objectives, Movahedian told Al Jazeera.

Turkey has a number of geopolitical objectives, including expanding its presence in northern Syria and striking a deal with Iran’s interests and the region’s axis of resistance. ”

Since HTS has shown a “radical” mindset over the years that does not enjoy widespread support in the Arab and Islamic world, Vahedian claimed that Ankara may unintentionally push the Arab countries’ positions on Syria closer to Iran.

What’s next?

Tehran’s Araghchi threatened to send soldiers into Syria without specifying what circumstances would cause Tehran to do so.

The Iranian government on Saturday refuted reports that Tehran’s Damascus embassy had been evacuated.

However, Tehran has not made any official comments regarding reports that members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other fighters affiliated with Iran have reportedly fled Syria.

Sending in a sizable number of soldiers would be a significant shift for Iran, which has historically relied on proxy fighters and senior commanders as “military advisers” rather than maintaining its boots on the ground. Since last week’s irrational fighting broke out in Syria, at least one Iranian general has died.

Since the beginning of the Gaza War, two generals and other senior IRGC personnel have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. In the same bunker as the assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, another senior IRGC commander was killed in Lebanon in late September.

Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Naderi wrote in a post on X that said, “We are watching coolly, Syria is on the verge of collapse,” which was echoed by state television commentators as well.

We will also lose Lebanon and Iraq, and we must fight the enemy within our borders, if Damascus falls. To keep Syria safe, we have donated a lot of blood. ”

The MP continued, “Whatever the reason is, it’s not to the benefit of the country and something must be done before it is too late,” explaining that he doesn’t understand why Iran isn’t being more eager to intervene.

Hezbollah in Lebanon and armed groups in Iraq have both expressed their support for al-Assad’s government, as have other members of the Iran-led axis of resistance.

There hasn’t been an official deployment, though despite videos that are widely available online purportedly showing tens of thousands of soldiers and heavy weapons being reportedly deployed to Syria from Iraq and some even entering Syria.

A pro-Iran Hezbollah leader was accused of using “Zionist-stricken mercenaries” by HTS in a statement released late on Friday.

According to Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, who said he is “very skeptical” this would occur given the current circumstances, Iran and Russia would need to send in significant military support.

Due to Israeli airstrikes on Iranian positions there, he added, and Russia may not be able to support them with significant air force because of the Ukrainian conflict.

Syria is unlikely to have a well-functioning central government for a while, regardless of whether Assad manages to keep his regime afloat.

Source: Aljazeera