Ukraine takes another bite out of Russia as Moscow grinds on in Donetsk

As Kyiv’s counterinvasion passed its five-month mark this week, Ukrainian forces launched a new surprise offensive inside Russia, expanding its reach to the north and east.

On Sunday, geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces entering the settlement and departing from their base in Sudzha, capturing fields, and entering Berdin.

By Monday, Ukrainian forces had also captured the settlements of Russkoye Porechnoye and Novosotnitsky. The main thoroughfare connects Sudzha to Kursk, the regional capital, and all three settlements.

According to Russian military bloggers, Ukrainian forces also control Martynovka, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Mikhaylovka.

According to the Russian bloggers, the Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in three waves using armoured vehicles and company-sized assaults.

The use of electronic warfare was cited as one of the keys to their success.

“Our drones can’t do anything about it yet, as enemy EW (electronic warfare) has nailed them literally to the ground”, one reporter wrote.

Ukrainian forces also seem to have used High Mobility Army Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to block Russian reinforcements.

“As in August, the enemy is actively covering up his offensive actions with HIMARS strikes”, wrote a Russian reporter. “He is trying to knock out our suitable reserves, artillery and drone operators”.

Explosions were reported at an aviation technical base in Kursk itself, about 70km (40 miles) from Ukrainian-held areas. More than one Ukrainian missile was shot down, according to the military operations headquarters in Kursk, suggesting others had crossed.

According to reports from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, “Ukraine forces are using longer-range fires to interdict Russian rear areas and EW to degrade Russian drones in support of Ukrainian mechanized advances,” “the Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk are employing more effective combined arms tactics.”

In addition to missiles, Ukraine has used long-range drones of its own build to attack Russian energy assets. A Ukrainian drone hit a terminal for gas condensate transshipment in the port of Ust-Luga, near Leningrad, on Saturday, causing a massive fire.

The occupation of tens of thousands of Russian servicemen, who would otherwise be attacking Ukrainian soil, is one of the reasons why Ukrainian officials have cited a number of causes for the counterinvasion.

“The Kursk region is where the Russians have deployed their powerful units. North Korean soldiers are involved there. What’s important is that the occupier cannot currently redirect all this force to other directions, in particular the Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv or Zaporizhia regions”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an evening address on Monday.

“Since the beginning of the Kursk operation, the enemy has already lost over 38, 000 troops in this area alone, including approximately 15, 000 irrecoverable losses”, he said.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces published a list of Russian equipment destroyed in Kursk, including 104 tanks, 575 armoured combat vehicles, more than 1, 000 other vehicles and 330 artillery systems.

In exchange for its own POWs, Ukraine claimed to have taken 860 Russians from Kursk and used them.

Are Russian tanks dwindling?

Russia’s ability to replace soldiers is less certain, compared to its ability to replace equipment.

Ukraine’s defence ministry estimated that during 2024 its forces had destroyed 3, 689 Russian tanks, 8, 956 armoured combat vehicles, and more than 13, 000 artillery pieces. 5 ships and 458 smaller craft were reportedly sunk by the Ukrainian Navy.

Soviet armour has been being recovered and repurposed for use by Russia. Its ability to continue doing that is not known.

Despite satellite photography suggesting a high percentage of Russia’s tanks were in such poor condition as to be inaccessible, one monitor of Russian hardware estimated that there were only about 48 percent of its tanks left and a similar proportion of its armored fighting vehicles.

Russia had two to three years of armour, according to an estimate made by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies a year ago.

Questions about Russian armor were also raised by the continued Russian assaults on Ukrainian positions this week.

The twin settlements of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk, which Russian forces have attacked 26 times along a front that is 45 kilometers (30 miles) away from the south, have received the majority of their manpower and firepower.

In his Saturday evening address, Zelenskyy stated that “ferferent battles continue along the entire front line, with Pokrovsk being the hottest area.”

On Tuesday, 41 combat clashes were in this area, out of 176 across the entire front.

At the closest point, Russian forces held positions just 1.5km (1 mile) from Pokrovsk, where 7, 300 civilians were reportedly still living and working.

“The intensity of the fighting has changed, it has become greater. Serhiy Okishev, a sergeant of the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade fighting in the Pokrovsk region, stated on a telethon that there are now a separate motorized rifle regiment and a motorized rifle regiment of the Russian Federation.

However, he pointed out that Russian troops were using fewer armoured vehicles and more buggies, golf carts and civilian vehicles. Whether this was due to the Russian arsenal’s lack of armor or manoeuvrability was a factor.

Similar to what a spokesman for the Ukrainian forces in Kurakhove said on Friday: “The Russians have switched to attacks only by infantry in the past few weeks, and if armoured vehicles are used, then only for fire support and in the assaults themselves do not take part.

Because they are so afraid of our antitank missile systems, he said, “The Russians keep their own armored vehicles as far as they can.”

Ukraine invests in long-range and unmanned systems

In the past year, Ukraine has made significant investments in its own defense sector, particularly unmanned systems of all kinds, and is working on novel strategies.

Ukrainian media outlet TSN learned on Monday that the Ukrainian military intelligence’s Magura V sea drone shot down two Russian Mi8 helicopters over the Black Sea on December 31.

The attack took place near Cape Tarkhankut, 15km (10 miles) from Sevastopol.

Unit 13 of military intelligence, responsible for operating the Magura surface drone, laid a trap for Russian aviation, which is engaged to spot and destroy naval drones once they’re sighted. “In this particular operation, we did not have the task, as usual, of hiding from aviation. We went specifically to hunt for air targets”, said an unidentified source.

The armed forces are “increasing the number of brigades with a reinforced unmanned component” and creating a separate brigade for unmanned systems, according to Commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii.

“Overall, in December, operators of the Defense Forces of Ukraine hit over 54 thousand enemy targets. Almost half of this result – 49 percent – provided by kamikaze drones”, he wrote on social media.

On Friday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyal revealed that Ukraine would construct at least 30 000 long-range drones and cruise missiles this year.

“As part of the ‘ Weapons of Victory ‘ project, we will launch long-term contracts with manufacturers for 3-5 years. We will pay special attention to the long-range component and missile program”, Shmyal said.

In order to increase Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity from an estimated $7 billion in 2024, the drone and missile programs were a part of a strategy.

The prospect of a freeze in the conflict along the current battle lines has increased as a result of Donald Trump’s pledge to end the war this year.

Zelenskyy praised France for bringing up the possibility, but added that this should be done as part of a deal bringing Ukraine into NATO, and that he was willing to host a multinational force of European peacekeepers in Ukraine.

“It ought to be on the path to NATO without a doubt. The deployment of European forces does not mean that NATO will not have a future, Zelenskyy said. Trump seems to be optimistic about this, he said.

Source: Aljazeera