Ukraine prepares to fight North Korean troops in Kursk as war escalates

As a result of Russia’s decision to join a second nuclear power in its fight against Ukraine, which threatens to swell the conflict further and further, Ukraine is prepared to fight North Korean troops in Kursk, Russia.

North Korean troops were in Kursk, where Ukraine launched a counterinvasion almost three months ago, according to a Pentagon confirmation on Tuesday.

There are “a small number of North Korean troops] in the Kursk oblast, with a few thousand more on the way that’s on the verge of arriving or being prepared right away,” according to Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder.

On Wednesday, a senior South Korean official reported to reporters that about 3, 000 North Korean troops were being moved far from the front lines.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed the deployment on Monday. He told reporters, “Today I can confirm that North Korean army units have been deployed to the Kursk region and that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia.”

He called it “a significant escalation in the]Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s] ongoing involvement in Russia’s illegal war”, and “a dangerous expansion of Russia’s war”.

Ryder confirmed that 10, 000 troops from North Korea were being trained in eastern Russia. Last week, information from South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence suggested a figure as high as 12 000.

Because Russia has such a large number of troops, it’s not clear how much these troops could aid its war effort.

An estimated ten 520 Russians were killed or injured in the previous week, according to Oleksandr Pavlyuk, the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, via Telegram on Sunday.

In Kursk alone, Russia had suffered 17, 800 casualties over the past three months, Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii said on Telegram, including 6, 600 killed.

In a recent study for the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, author Olena Guseinova claimed that North Korea could not significantly affect the situation.

“The regime, in perspective, could potentially provide Russia with an additional 3 to 4 units, comprising 15, 000 to 20, 000 soldiers of various skills”, she concluded. However, it’s unlikely that North Korean assistance will change the war’s overall course, even in such a situation.

The reasons, she said, were political and military. According to Guseinova, “the deployment of a large number of soldiers poses challenges in controlling their movements on the ground, increasing the possibility of desertion or defection,” requiring “security personnel to closely monitor the troops.”

She also said, “North Korea cannot afford to deplete its valuable human resources, particularly given that its primary adversary, South Korea, has a population twice its size”.

Allies on both sides should be cautious.

Officials appeared to have understood the implications of Washington openly encouraging the engagement of a nuclear adversary through proxies, so US messaging on the terms of Ukrainian engagement with North Korean forces was unclear.

Asked on Tuesday if he supported Ukraine attacking the North Koreans, US President Joe Biden said: “If they cross into Ukraine, yes”.

When asked if Ukraine could use US forces against North Korean forces, Ryder replied, “We’ve been very clear that Ukraine is able to use those capabilities to defend their sovereign territory from threats that emanate either from within Ukrainian territory or across the border.”

On Wednesday, South Korea appeared to pull back from previous suggestions it might assist Ukraine militarily, in retaliation for the North’s assistance of Russia.

According to a source in Yoon Suk-yeol’s office, Seoul’s Yonhap News Agency stated that the country would not send 155mm shells to Ukraine.

Unnamed South Korean presidents were quoted by Reuters saying: “We would consider providing weapons for defensive purposes as part of the step-by-step scenarios, and we might also consider offensive use if it appears they are going too far.”

South Korea will send a team of experts to examine North Korean troops’ military might.

There was caution among Russia’s friends, as well.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a summit of the BRICS nations in Kazan to demonstrate that Russia has international support.

The Kazan Declaration, however, signed by China, India, Brazil and others, emphasised a peaceful resolution to the conflict, “consistently with the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter”.

In accordance with Article 2 of the Charter, nations are required to “settle their international disputes peacefully” and to “refrain from using force to threaten any state’s territorial integrity or political independence.”

Russia’s only ally in Europe, Belarus, appeared to deny that it might follow in North Korea’s footsteps.

If Belarus’ military, including the military of Belarus, were on the contact line, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said to Steve Rosenberg, “It would be a step toward the escalation of the conflict.”

“This would lead to escalation,” he said. Why? Because you, the Anglo-Saxons, would immediately say that another country had got involved on one side… so NATO troops would be deployed to Ukraine”.

Russia’s incremental gains continue

Russia continued to expand its territorial ties to Ukraine throughout the past week.

Russian troops advancing simultaneously from various directions on Sunday helped to take control of the settlement of Selidovo in the eastern Donetsk region.

In an apparent tactical innovation, Russian forces also mounted light, first-person view (FPV) drones with ammunition onto heavy reconnaissance drones, enabling them to travel deeper behind Ukrainian lines.

The main reconnaissance UAV’s [unmanned aerial vehicle] depth of penetration, which dropped the FPV drone directly into the area of impact with the targets, according to National Guard spokesman Vitaly Mylovydov during a telethon.

Despite its constant, small territorial gains, Russia has not achieved anything like the tempo of its initial invasion, said military experts.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, assessed that Russian gains in September averaged 14 square kilometres (5.4sq miles) a day, slightly more than 1 percent of the 1, 265sq kilometres (488sq miles) Russian troops seized per day in March 2022.

“Rapid Russian advances deep into Ukrainian territory, including the temporary seizure of large portions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts characterised the first month of the Russian full-scale invasion”, said the ISW, “whereas more recent Russian advances have been characterised by small-scale, localised, tactical advances”.

Ukraine expanding its defense sector base

Ukraine has helped develop its own defense sector in the last year despite its allies’ unwillingness to send the weapons it needs.

Attending the fourth Ukraine-Nordic countries summit on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy encouraged more investment in Ukraine’s and Europe’s defence industrial base.

“Please continue to develop your own industries, producing everything needed for defence, including sensitive items like microchips. According to Zelenskyy, Europe requires industrial strength and global autonomy.

He made an apparent reference to the US’s ban on using weapons within a short range of the Ukrainian border, which also affects European-made weapons with US components. Russian airfields have been targeted with long-range US weapons by Ukraine.

Ukraine’s industrial policy has yielded impressive results. The country’s Ministry of Defense revealed on Tuesday that nearly 1.3 million drones of various types had been delivered as a result of contracts that were issued for the supply of 1.6 million in the first ten months of the year.

Ukraine has substituted drones for 155mm shells, where Russia has a roughly 2: 1 advantage, and used them with devastating precision against Russian drones, dugouts and armour.

Ukraine’s armed forces said drone pilots were practising destroying Russian-made Gerbera drones as training to take out Iranian-designed Shahed drones.

On Friday, Zelenskyy told his national security council, “The biggest priority is drones, of course, including drones that can shoot down Shaheds and other attack drones”.

Source: Aljazeera