Tuipulotu on red alert as Scotland face wounded Welsh

It is said that the bookmakers are never wrong. It is a fallacy, of course. They have been wrong about Scotland twice in a row now.

They made Gregor Townsend’s team warm favourites against Italy in round one and made them clear underdogs against England in round two. Bookies are human, some of the time.

The Scots have won the past three against Wales – two hairy experiences and one landslide.

They have not won four-in-a-row against the Welsh since the 1920s, but they are screaming hot favourites.

The best price available on Scotland is 1-10, with Wales on offer at 9-1 for anybody brave enough to accept. Business is reported as being slow on that front.

Other firms are making Scotland 1-16 and even 1-18. Basically, the odds-layers are saying the Scots cannot lose, which is a theory that will sit very uneasily with the away fans.

Sione Tuipulotu does not strike you as the kind of captain who places much store in what these people are predicting. Speaking on the eve of the game, he said the dejection of losing to Italy still lives with him and he is reluctant to let it go.

“That feeling still lingers,” the centre said, before once again mentioning the desperation his players felt going into the Calcutta Cup and the need to tap into those same emotions in Cardiff.

“I put pressure on the group to be desperate out there and show desperation,” he added.

“It also makes me a little bit frustrated because the week before we couldn’t against Italy for a lot of reasons. So that feeling is still there for me and I hope it stays with me for the rest of the tournament, because I think it’s needed.

“I’m still very desperate. I just know you can’t lose two games in this tournament and think you’re going to be there at the back end for anything.

“In order for us to stay in this tournament, we’ve got to be just as desperate, just as emotional, just as clinical as we were last week.”

We are in new territory here with the super soaraway Scots. Or, to be more precise, the weak and weary Welsh.

More than Scotland’s systematic and thrilling defeat of England, those odds are a reflection of where Steve Tandy’s team are at.

Thirteen consecutive losses in the Six Nations, 23 defeats in their past 25 games (they beat Japan twice), an average of 51 points conceded in their first two games of the championship after losing 73-0 to the Springboks in the autumn and shipping 52 to the All Blacks.

Everything points to an away win. Everything.

Tuipulotu said that the returning Blair Kinghorn and Duhan van der Merwe are “war ready”.

You get the impression Scotland’s in-house messaging has been all about keeping the foot on the accelerator rather than coasting, as they have done in the past, most notably in 2022 when – after beating England – they were insipid in defeat in Cardiff next time out.

Tuipulotu is on red alert. As he must be. He knows that the hunger they felt last week is not the exclusive preserve of the Scotland team.

“I always felt that Welsh people and Scottish people are actually quite similar and they carry the same underdog story,” he said.

“My instruction to the boys is that, if you feel like we were desperate last week, they’re going to be on a whole other level of desperation tomorrow.

“And that’s what I’m expecting from them. I’m expecting them to be really fired-up and want to play in front of their fans. And our preparation has shown that we really respect this side because we know how desperate they are, know how well coached they are.

“And as people, they’re going to front-up for their country. So we’re prepared.”

Tuipulotu had kind words for Tandy, his former defence coach with Scotland and a man he says he owes much to.

“He was the first coach I had a personal relationship with when I moved a long way away from home [from Australia],” he said.

“I know you guys probably don’t believe me, but if I’m around people I don’t know, I’m very shy. I’m not shy now. But, when I first came over here, I was really shy.

“And he was one of the first coaches to put his arm around me. That had a massive effect on my rugby because I trusted him a lot and I confided in him a lot on stuff outside of rugby as well. He played a massive part of bringing me out of my shell.

“He saw the leader in me that maybe I didn’t even see at that time. And he encouraged that side as well. So I owe a lot to him.”

There is a limit to his gratitude, of course. He thinks the world of Tandy but is also, well, desperate to beat him.

It would be a seismic shock if Scotland were to fall over in Cardiff, but the hard-bitten visitors are keeping their guard up.

A few of them gathered outside a hostelry on St Mary Street in the early evening on Friday. Their mood? “Very, very confident,” said one, “but at the same time very, very nervous.”