Trump suggests he wants ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Is it feasible?

Washington, DC – As hundreds of thousands of displaced people return to their homes in the north of the country, scenes of jubilation and tearful reunions are taking place all over the Gaza Strip.

The return was possible thanks to a fragile ceasefire following 15 months of conflict in Gaza. However, as human rights activists laud a eponymous instance of reverse displacement in Palestinian history, US President Donald Trump has demanded that Gaza’s entire population be relocated to Egypt and Jordan.

“You’re talking about probably a million and a half people”, Trump told reporters. “We just clean out that whole thing and say: ‘ You know, it’s over. ‘”

Analysts say Trump’s proposal would amount to ethnic cleansing, but it is unlikely to materialise, given the geopolitical realities in the region.

Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine/Israel programme at the Arab Center Washington DC, said Trump’s “outrageous” statement should be condemned for violating all norms and basic rights.

He added, however, it should also be taken with a degree of scepticism.

“Trump says all kinds of things”, Munayyer explained. “Sometimes, they’re things that he means. Sometimes, they’re things that he doesn’t mean. Sometimes, they’re things that he heard in a conversation that he had five minutes ago. Sometimes, they’re things that he thinks he heard but misunderstood”.

According to Munayyer, the notion of ethnic cleansing Gaza has been around since the war started in October 2023.

However, Cairo has quickly stopped discussions about moving Palestinians to Egypt, the only Arab nation that borders the territory. Jordan, which sits next to the occupied West Bank, also rejected mass displacement.

Both countries have reiterated their positions after Trump’s recent comments.

“This is not just about these nations’ views of Palestine or what they think of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” said Munayyer.

“It’s also about their own national security concerns — existential national security concerns, which really can’t be minimised in this discussion”.

Jordan and Egypt refuse to do so.

On Wednesday, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi forcefully stressed that Egypt would not take part in any campaign to remove Palestinians from Gaza, citing the “injustice” of displacement as well as Egyptian security.

He said, “I want to assure the Egyptian people that no one will tolerate complicity in violating Egypt’s national security.”

El-Sisi added that the Egyptian people would warn him against the move if he were to consider allowing Palestinians to be driven out.

He said, “I say clearly that we will not participate in the displacement of the Palestinian people from their land.”

Jordan echoed that stance, with Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi saying that the Hashemite kingdom’s position is “irreversible and unchanged”.

Analysts claim that Egypt and Jordan have significant interests, which would make it impossible to accept displaced people from Gaza, despite Trump’s reputation for strong-arming other nations.

Both governments are concerned about a backlash from their citizens, who view any involvement in ethnic cleansing as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause, which is still a pressing issue in the area.

Moreover, the influx of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians, including possibly thousands of battle-hardened fighters, could destabilise political, economic and security structures in Egypt and Jordan, experts told Al Jazeera.

Nancy Okail, president of the Center for International Policy, a US-based think tank, said Trump’s comments do not appear to be based on any real strategy.

“The Egyptian government, and particularly President el-Sisi, have been very clear and very firm that this is a no-go, it’s a red line”, Okail said. “There is no way that this would be accepted”.

She added that Trump, a self-described dealmaker, may try to use a carrot-and-stick approach to convince Egypt to accept Palestinians from Gaza, but el-Sisi would not even entertain the idea.

“First of all, it’s a capacity issue. It’s also a legitimacy issue. And most importantly, it’s a direct threat to the stability of the country”, Okail said.

Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Jordan faces similar issues with mass displacement.

While people “should be concerned” about Trump’s proposal, Sheline said the US president “may not have fully considered the repercussions” of this policy for Jordan and the entire region.

“It’s so maddening because I hear this so frequently, people saying: ‘ Why don’t other countries just take them, or why don’t they just leave? ‘ Well, why doesn’t Israel just stop trying to kill them? That’s the real question”, Sheline told Al Jazeera.

Trump’s statement

Trump stunned the Middle East on Saturday by making a clear request to evacuate Gaza’s population from the devastated strip.

“I’d like Egypt to take people, &nbsp, and I’d like Jordan to take people”, Trump said.

After more than a year of relentless Israeli bombardment, he defended his suggestion by describing the destruction in Gaza.

“It’s actually a demolition site right now,” he said. Almost everything’s demolished, and people are dying there”, Trump said. Therefore, I’d rather work with some Arab countries to build housing in a different location where they can perhaps live peacefully for a change.

He claimed that a displacement could be “long-term” or “temporary.”

Despite the backlash, Trump doubled down on his proposal on Monday, claiming that he spoke to Egypt’s el-Sisi about the matter.

“I wish he would take some]Palestinians]”, Trump said. “We helped them a lot, and I’m sure he’d help us”.

Egypt receives the most US aid. However, neither the Egyptian presidency nor the White House made a readout of the alleged call between Trump and Essi.

US ‘ not restrained ‘ by law

Trump’s statements reverse Joe Biden’s stated position that Palestinians should be allowed to remain in Gaza permanently.

Still, in October 2023, early in the war, a funding request under Biden floated the possibility of mass displacement.

In a letter to Congress from the White House, it was suggested that Israel’s aid “would support displaced and conflict-affected civilians, including Palestinian refugees in Gaza and the West Bank” and that it would “address potential needs of Gazans fleeing to neighboring countries.”

The Biden administration, according to Sheline, would have supported the massive expulsion of the Palestinian population from Gaza in an “alternative universe” where Arab nations might have agreed to accept displaced Palestinians.

Sheline, who resigned from the US State Department in protest of its Gaza policy, claimed that “international law has not restrained the United States nor Israel when it comes to the Palestinians.”

She noted that US laws require that the nation halt military assistance to nations that violate human rights.

According to Biden, it was obvious that neither he nor the US would have attempted to abide by international or US law that would have required the US to stop providing security assistance to Israel.

Critics claim Trump’s suggestion fits the description of ethnic cleansing, which can be viewed as both a war crime and a crime against humanity.

According to UN experts, ethnic cleansing is “a purposeful policy that one ethnic or religious group has developed to remove the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from a particular geographic area by using violent and terror-inspiring methods.”

Bezalel Smotrich, the head of Israel’s finance ministry, said he is working with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the rest of the cabinet to “prepare an operational plan and ensure the realization of President Trump’s vision.” Smotrich welcomed Trump’s comments on Monday.

Munayyer claimed that Israel’s actions have demonstrated its desire to depopulate Gaza.

He said it’s one thing to carry out ethnic cleansing by loading people up with guns before forcing them to leave at gunpoint.

“To do it, one can simply destroy everything there, make it uninhabitable, and then essentially force the issue by making it impossible to live there.” And I believe that the Israelis have always aimed for this.

Gaza’s future

Munayyer argued that a permanent ceasefire and political will must be used to rebuild Gaza, not to displaced its population.

“The people have been there throughout the genocide”, he said. Now that the bombs have stopped dropping on them, they are not in any greater danger of dying. It’s far from an ideal situation. It’s not like going to Mars, though, if you wanted to start reconstruction and provide these people with temporary housing, shelter, and utilities while the reconstruction is going on.

The first phase of the cease-fire, which began on January 19 and will last 42 days, is still in progress. The second and third parties of the agreement won’t be finalized until the region’s future, including reconstruction plans.

However, the future of Gaza still poses significant challenges. Hamas’ continued rule has been endorsed by Israel and the US.

Last month, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken presented a “day after” plan for Gaza that would see other countries send troops to staff an interim security force, paving the way for a “fully reformed” Palestinian Authority (PA) to govern the territory.

However, it’s not clear whether Hamas would accept foreign troops in Gaza. Despite Israel’s close security cooperation with Israeli forces in the West Bank, Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected giving the territory to the PA.

Palestinian voices are absent from the discussion about Gaza’s future, according to Okail, arguing that the US, Israel, or regional powers should not be able to dictate who will rule the Palestinian territories.

Source: Aljazeera