Townsend’s dilemmas before ‘most significant’ Scotland selection

Gregor Townsend picked his first Scotland team in Singapore in the summer of 2017 when they played Italy, an affair of little consequence compared to the humdinger that is about to happen in Dublin on Saturday

On Thursday, he names a squad for the 103rd time.

If his debut team selection nine years ago was a moment of great personal pride, the one he comes up with for Ireland on Saturday will be his most significant.

With a Triple Crown on the line – and possibly a championship, too – there are more eyeballs on him now than at any point in his reign.

On the road to this point, he has lost a few warriors – Jamie Ritchie and Jamie Dobie after the Calcutta Cup and now Scott Cummings and Gregor Brown, too.

That’s a stellar cast list in the casualty unit, particularly the three forwards and especially the locks, who have been immense in Scotland’s recovery from the despondency of Rome.

Elliot Millar-Mills, previously unsung, had such a terrific impact off the bench against England and Wales that his injury can now be categorised as a blow.

In keeping with this trippy, but utterly wonderful, championship, Duhan van der Merwe is also out, a loss that would have been seen as an absolute calamity not that long ago.

Now, given his bit-part season, it’s merely regrettable but entirely salvageable. Even on his very best form it’s hard to see how he would have shifted Graham, scorer of two tries against France, and Kyle Steyn, arguably the player of the entire tournament so far.

In the four games, Townsend has started two different full-backs and three different left wings. He has changed his hooker from Italy to England, England to Wales and Wales to France – Ewan Ashman, George Turner and Dave Cherry all getting the nod at different times.

He’s had three different second-row combinations and three different back-rows. Some of this has been forced by injury.

His first three benches have had a 5-3 split before he switched to 6-2 against France, a day when Rory Darge, the brilliant flanker, ended up playing centre alongside the inspirational captain, Sione Tuipulotu.

So what now? Ireland were blown away by France, sneaked home against Italy, were utterly imperious against England and then battled to a win against Wales.

They have issues with their scrum, among other things, but they have home advantage and an astonishing win rate against Scotland.

As if the heart rate wasn’t high enough on Saturday the sight of Kyle Steyn getting taken off injured, with a gash on his leg, was enough to make you cry out for the smelling salts.

Steyn – intelligent, influential and incredibly dynamic – has been a revelation.

Losing Brown and Cummings was grim enough but the fear of losing Steyn as well was too much to contemplate. He self-diagnosed himself after the game. All good, apparently, and defence coach Lee Radford backed that up on Tuesday.

The backline is humming, so there’s no reason to change it. Seven tries and 5.6 points-per-entry into France’s 22 is way beyond anything we have seen from them before.

Scotland were on an average of just short of three points per entry before Saturday and that was decent; 5.6 is stratospherically, historically high.

Townsend’s thinking on his starting tighthead against France was razor sharp. To the surprise of many, he went for D’Arcy Rae over Zander Fagerson.

Fagerson hasn’t been at his outstanding best in the championship, but Rae’s elevation was quite something. It was based on what he did in the scrum in the autumn – and he repeated it on Saturday.

Scotland won two scrum penalties and a scrum free-kick while Rae was involved. His physicality told. The one area where France looked vulnerable was the scrum and Scotland exposed them. Rae went hard for 40 minutes and then Fagerson appeared.

It worked beautifully. The veteran came on and brought major impact. Ireland’s scrum is causing them palpitations so there’s logic to Townsend going with the same plan in Dublin.

A sore double whammy. Brown, a lock and a six and exceptional in his versatility, and Cummings, an absolute dog of war, are both out. Ouch.

How do you replace those guys? Grant Gilchrist is one of the obvious ones to step up. Gilchrist has adapted well to his bench role in the last two games. He’s been an important part of an impressive cavalry

Beside him? Max Williamson started in Cardiff but was flat and lost his place in the 23 for France. Jonny Gray hasn’t played any rugby since the end of January and a partnership of Gilchrist and Gray doesn’t give enough ball-carrying oomph.

Alex Samuel, a giant, has just come into the squad. Too much to expect him to go into the 23?

Just because the performance against France was a thing of wonder does not mean that Townsend is going to wave everyone through for Dublin. Each position will be examined in microscopic detail, maybe one bench spot in particular.

Does he go 6-2 again? And if he does, is it Josh Bayliss and Freddy Douglas or, perhaps, a different combination? Darge and Bayliss are Townsend’s emergency men for the backline.

Bayliss will be involved. Douglas is a major operator in the making, but the extra muscle the ball-carrying muscle that number eight Magnus Bradbury provides is something that the coach might consider. He’s bang in form. It wouldn’t be a shock if he was named in the 23. He’ll go close.