The numbers behind Borthwick’s nightmare Six Nations

Four weeks can feel like a long time in sport.

At 19:00 GMT on 7 February, England had just won a 12th successive match – the third longest run of victories in their 155-year history of Test rugby, after crushing Wales by 41 points.

Grand Slam aspirations were in full effect.

They start round five this Saturday staring into the abyss of four defeats in the same championship for the first time in half a century, with aspirations of a clean sweep fading into the prospect of a deeply uncomfortable inquest.

“We are all disappointed and frustrated,” said head coach Steve Borthwick in the aftermath of the historic loss in Rome.

“We came to this tournament with really high aspirations, as did the players, and we’ve been unable to meet those targets we set for ourselves.”

The match-winning try scored by Italy utility back Leonardo Marin once again involved a line-break in the 10-metre channel – a microcosm of England’s vulnerabilities out wide after being eviscerated there by Scotland and Ireland.

England missed 35 tackles leading to a break or a try in rounds two, three and four, with more than half of those coming in wide areas. Both tallies are the most of any team.

England’s issues in defence have been compounded by myriad unforced mistakes in attack.

In 2025, England were only outscored by South Africa in terms of tries, including 25 scored in the Six Nations – their highest tally in this tournament in nearly a quarter of a century.

Borthwick’s men then scored seven against Wales only five weeks ago, before an implosion with ball in hand began at Murrayfield.

England have scored just seven more tries across rounds two, three and four, failing to get a bonus point, a result of a chronic lack of composure in the opposition 22.

They have made 48 entries in this tournament and returned with only two points per visit.

England were turned over 17 times in the red zone against Scotland, Ireland and Italy, with seven of those because of unforced handling errors.

A lack of confidence. Too much kicking. The weight of the shirt.

All have been reasonably used to explain England’s sudden decline, but the simple fact remains that Test rugby is an unforgiving arena, especially in a highly competitive Six Nations campaign.

It gets even harder when you have fewer players on the pitch than the opposition.

Approaching the hour mark at the Stadio Olimpico, England led by eight points against an Italy team with 14 men.

But 15 minutes later, England were five points behind on the scoreboard with two men of their own in the sin-bin.

The yellow cards shown to Sam Underhill and captain Maro Itoje “hurt us badly”, Borthwick said, the latest examples of indiscipline which have undermined England’s tournament.

England have received at least two cards in every match so far. They have played 108 minutes – the equivalent of more than five quarters of rugby – with 14 men.

Discipline has been particularly poor at the breakdown, with exactly half of the 44 penalties England have conceded coming in this area.

A string of three defeats has led to familiar questions surrounding Borthwick’s suitability to lead England amid a three-year reign of jarring juxtaposition.

When the 46-year-old swapped Leicester Tigers for Twickenham ahead of schedule in December 2022, England were in a ragged place.

Four wins from 10 matches in the final two Six Nations campaigns of his predecessor Eddie Jones’ reign, including a record-equalling worst finish of fifth, had been followed by an autumn in which England lost to Argentina at home for the first time in 16 years, were hammered by South Africa and somehow scraped a draw against New Zealand.

Less than a year later, Borthwick’s England came within three minutes of a World Cup final having so nearly beaten the Springboks.

But Borthwick has also overseen a first loss to Fiji. A first loss to Italy. Three of the four biggest tallies of points England have ever conceded at Twickenham.

That sequence of success, though, is threatening to be a fleeting narrative.

Of the nine coaches to have taken charge of England’s men’s side in the professional era, Borthwick has only the fifth best success rate.

His win record stands at 59.1% after 44 games, similar to that of Stuart Lancaster who had a rate of 60.9% after 46. Lancaster was sacked before he got to lead in a 47th fixture, following a desperate home World Cup in 2015.

Borthwick’s England are now facing their own nadir – the possibility of four defeats in the same Five or Six Nations for the first time since 1976, and the likelihood of matching Jones’ fifth-place finish.

Facing a formidable French side who know a bonus-point win will guarantee a record eighth title is a nightmare assignment for any visiting team aiming to end a dispiriting losing run.

England have lost 10 of their past 14 away games in this tournament. They have not won against France on French soil in nearly a decade.

Logic dictates that England’s role on Saturday will be to simply bear witness to France’s title-winning coronation.

And yet, Fabien Galthie’s side conceded 50 points to Scotland for the very first time in round four, and seven tries in the Six Nations for the first time in 11 years.

Les Bleus have also shown vulnerability in the scrum – England’s only real area of strength in this Six Nations.

Borthwick has gambled once again in selection, making just one change from last week.

An England shirt that weighed heavily in Rome is unlikely to feel any lighter in Paris.