The Arab plan for Gaza has two problems: Israel and the PA

Egypt’s urgent response to the crisis that has been occurring since October 7, 2023 has been outlined in its proposal for the reconstruction and administration of Gaza. The plan, which is supported by the Arab states, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and a number of European countries, is not just a humanitarian initiative; it is a geopolitical maneuver designed to counter the Israeli Prime Minister’s and recently supported by US President Donald Trump’s plan to depopulate the Gaza Strip.

Without taking action directly to address the pressing issue of Palestinian statelessness, Arab states sat back for a while before taking the step of rebuilding and governing Gaza. Effectively, they were restraining themselves from being placed under the control of a Palestinian Authority (PA) 2.0, which would take on Israeli responsibilities as an occupying force while Israelis continued to colonize the West Bank. However, they have been forced to take action because of the existential threat that Trump and Netanyahu pose for Gaza.

Egypt’s $53 billion reconstruction plan essentially depends on the establishment of a local steering committee made up of technocrats for the first six months, with transition to PA control following. However, this approach has significant drawbacks that could prevent the plan from succeeding before it is even put into action.

Objectivism committed by Netanyahu

The Israeli Prime Minister has stated his opposition to any PA role in Gaza. His stance is strategic: allowing the Palestinian Authority to rule the area would give the West Bank and Gaza a platform for resuming peace negotiations.

Netanyahu and the political elite have worked for decades to stop any event that might lead to Palestinian self-determination. The Palestinian territories’ fragmentation and division serve their interests, preventing them from achieving statehood forever.

The Arab states need the support of as many other actors as possible, particularly the Trump administration, who has the power to compel the Israeli premier to accept.

The Arab plan is still the best option on the table to stop the ethnic cleansing of Gaza through renewed fighting and long-term deprivation, even though Netanyahu may still attempt to impede its implementation by imposing bureaucratic constraints, military escalations, or economic restraints as part of a well-worn Israeli playbook.

A PA in crisis

Beyond the Israeli resistance, the PA poses a significant challenge to the implementation of the Arab plan. It is a deeply unpopular institution under President Mahmoud Abbas, and the Oslo Accords’ demise has left it without political relevance.

Abbas has continued to cooperate with Israel on security, bolstering his authoritarian rule, and refusing to hold elections since 2006, accelerating the erosion of its legitimacy. His political leadership has increasingly been defined by repression of opposition groups, political renewal, and any resistance to Israeli aggression.

Without any real political will, the PA has evolved into an extension of Israel’s occupation and apartheid, imposing security in the West Bank and ensuring its legitimacy as an independent body. This has led to a lot of Palestinian disillusionment. In response to Abbas’s growing influence, especially against activists and groups calling for more confrontational language in regards to Israeli policies against ethnic cleansing, the situation has become increasingly difficult.

In the last 16 months of Israel’s genocidal assaults on Gaza and the West Bank, PA’s failure has been particularly glaring. Abbas’ silence and inaction reflect his obsessive behavior in the mobilization of the Palestinian resistance.

His administration has also lost the support of the Palestinian people and has largely lost its relevance to the world’s larger geopolitical players, including Israel, the US, and Arab states.

a political unrest

Abbas must prioritize the demands of his people over those of his people, which are largely conflicting with one another because of how dependent they are on Israel and the PA’s international donors to keep the authority afloat. His authoritarianism has gotten worse as his domestic popularity has subsequently declined.

Most recently, he spearheaded a crackdown against Palestinian resistance organizations in Jenin, a city in the northern West Bank, and cut off financial aid to Palestinians’ families who were imprisoned, killed, or injured by Israel.

Breaking a long-standing social agreement between the Palestinian people and their leaders only serves to underscore how intently the PA seeks to appease Israel and the West while sacrificing its own legitimacy.

The Arab states now find themselves without a real, viable partner because of the urgent need for Palestinian governance in Gaza. The current PA leadership is corrupt, weak, and likely incapable of effectively administering the Strip.

Some Arab countries, as well as Palestinian civil society and the diaspora, are calling for new leadership. Abbas and his supporters have, however, opposed to any of this. The Palestinian National Conference, which was being held in Doha as a grassroots effort to resurrect the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), was called off by the PA in mid-February.

Abbas has also offered an amnesty to disenchanted Fatah members, particularly Mohammed Dahlan, his UAE-backed rival who has lived in exile in Abu Dhabi, to accommodate Arab government opposition.

Any potential resumption of the Palestinian leadership structure could signal a shift in the dynamics of the PA, but it would not address the PA’s fundamental crisis of legitimacy. Without a broader commitment to national unity and representational renewal, any new leadership structure runs the risk of reversing the failures that have defined Abbas’s rule.

a unique opportunity

By breaking Abbas’s hold on Palestinian politics and resuming the revitalization process, the reconstruction of Gaza offers an opportunity to resurrect the country’s national movement. If the Arab states can steer Gaza toward a more stable and autonomous future, they might be able to do so given Netanyahu’s intransigence, Abbas’ self-interest, and internal Palestinian divisions.

However, if Abbas and his cadre of enshrined officials continue to rule, this could quickly turn into yet another failed attempt at Palestinian reconciliation, strengthening both the status quo of Israeli dominance and Palestinian unrest.

The fate of Gaza is uncertain. This Arab state intervention may lead to a positive outcome for Palestinian self-determination, but it may also represent a historic opportunity that was squandered. The Arab plan may be dead on arrival if Abbas continues to hold onto power, the PLO persists as a hollow shell, and Netanyahu continues to wage campaign to sabotage any form of Palestinian sovereignty.

A global commitment to genuine Palestinian self-determination is needed at this time, as well as for a political renewal in the Palestinians. It’s still to be seen whether the Arab states’ plan will overcome the structural obstacles. However, now is the time to change course before it is too late if the Palestinians’ leadership crisis has not already sealed Gaza’s fate.

Source: Aljazeera