SADC must act now to save Mozambique from becoming a failed state

On January 9, Mozambique’s main opposition leader, Venancio Mondlane, made his return home after two months in self-imposed exile.
He kneelted down in front of the Maputo International Airport gates, prayed for his country, and declared himself the “president-elect of the Mozambican people,… elected by the genuine will of the people,” and said “the president-elect of the people.”
He addressed reporters, claiming that the government was carrying out an “silent genocide” by kidnapping and killing opposition members to conceal grave irregularities in the October 9 elections. Then, in a wry encounter between state security forces and thousands of protesters who had demonstrated their support for the 50-year-old Pentecostal preacher, occurred.
The dreary postelection reality of Mozambique, which was characterized by widespread anti-government protests and senseless state violence, was exemplified by the chaotic scenes that day at the airport.
After the elections, the Mozambique Electoral Commission (CNE) was quick to declare the Frelimo Party, which has been at the helm of the country for 50 years, and its presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo, as the rightful winners. It claimed Chapo won more than 70 percent of the votes and Mondlane, backed by the Podemos party, came second with just 20 percent.
However, several independent electoral missions, including the European Union Electoral Observer Mission  and the Episcopal Conference of Mozambique, had already come to the conclusion that Chapo’s victory was neither free nor fair by the time the CNE announced the official results. They made reports of irregularities during the counting and results alteration both at the local and district levels.
Mondlane and other opposition figures demanded a repeat of the results, immediately, and encouraged supporters to challenge Frelimo.
The Frelimo government reacted by imposing a severe crackdown on all public dissenting viewpoints.
More than 300 people, including several children, have died in the violence in the past three months. Among the tragic losses are Elvino Dias, a legal representative of Mondlane, and Paulo Guambe, an official from Podemos, who were both shot dead by unknown assailants in the capital, Maputo, in October. Mondlane made the decision to temporarily relocate abroad for his safety shortly after these killings.
In Mozambique and the surrounding area, the election controversy has caused economic chaos.
Frequent large-scale protests began to disrupt commerce , while vandalism and looting became commonplace, thrusting the Southern African nation into a perpetual state of severe uncertainty, trepidation and unrest.
Due to the Lebombo border post’s ongoing closures, South Africa’s mining sector experienced daily losses of 10 million rand ($562, 822) and potential shutdowns. Moreover, a prison riot in Maputo on Christmas Day led to the escape of 1, 500 prisoners, highlighting a critical failure in law and order.
On December 23, Mozambique’s Constitutional Council confirmed Chapo’s electoral victory, officially extending Frelimo’s 50-year tenure in office. This judgement, however, served only to escalate the fury of the protesters.
Mozambicans began looking for solutions to the country’s current crisis as they began to lose faith in the capacity of their nation’s internal mechanisms to ensure democratic governance.
A group of Mozambican civil society organizations wrote an extraordinary plea to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on January 6 asking him to intervene to end the conflict between Frelimo and the opposition.
In order to resolve the crisis, they urged Ramaphosa to encourage the participation of the African Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, and the Peace and Security Council of the African Union.
Without a doubt, this request was unusual.
The Mozambican activists opted to start a bilateral engagement with South Africa, the region’s dominant democracy, rather than the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the regional body that should be in charge of any outside efforts to end the hostility. Although it was not surprising that the SADC showed signs of distrust, it also underscored how urgently important it is for the regional body to improve its performance.
The SADC Troika, which is currently made up of Tanzania, Malawi, and Zambia, had convened a virtual summit to discuss the situation in Mozambique the day before the petition was filed in Pretoria. The troika directed the SADC Panel of Elders and a ministerial committee to speak with opposition leaders and the Mozambican government at the meeting.
Although this was a step in the right direction, it is important to remember that many people saw it as a last-ditch effort to save faces.
Indeed, the SADC election observer mission, unlike all the others, had eagerly endorsed the October 9 polls, declaring that they were “professionally organised” and took place in an “orderly, peaceful and free atmosphere”. This stance had already demonstrated that the SADC cannot function as an objective and impartial arbitrator in this crisis, in the opinion of the majority of protesters.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zimbabwe’s, eSwatini, and Angola’s regions had long been aware of the SADC’s tendency to ignore widespread electoral malpractice and state oppression.
In fact, those in Mozambique already knew how to expect a lot from the SADC when it comes to protecting democracy long before these most recent elections.
Five years ago, Mozambique’s previous Frelimo-backed president, Filipe Nyusi, had secured a second term in office after declaring victory in the 2019 elections.
The opposition and several independent electoral missions similarly maintained this poll was marred by widespread irregularities, intimidation, violence and political assassinations. The bullet-ridden body of Babula Jeque, the Renamo Women’s League leader in Zumbo, was found next to her husband’s in the western province of Tete a day before votes were cast.
The SADC maintained cordial relations with the Frelimo government despite not doing much to address the issue as it does now.
The SADC cannot continue to cooperate with the Frelimo government as if it wants to maintain its credibility and bring about positive change in the region.
More importantly, Mozambique could become the site of a much deeper, more violent crisis that would be disastrous for both its more than 30 million citizens and the entire region if the SADC or even the African Union did not immediately intervene.
For 16 years from May 1977 to October 1992, Mozambique experienced a devastating civil war. More recently, since 2017, the gas-rich northern province of Cabo Delgado has been a target of a violent insurrection that has resulted in the displacement of 946, 000 people.
Meanwhile, the country is ranked 183 out of 189 countries on the 2023-2024 United Nations Human Development Index. Despite having a wealth of natural resources, it is one of the poorest and least developed nations in the world, with a national poverty rate of 74.7 percent.
Moreover, Mozambique is overwhelmed by systematic lawlessness.
In December 2022, Elisa Samuel Boerekamp, the general secretary of the Mozambican Judges Association, said her country had encountered “a crisis of the democratic rule of law”. Following the passage of the Single Salary Table, a law that weakened the authority of the lower court judges, Frelimo implemented this.
In addition to making blatant attempts to undermine the rule of law, corruption is prevalent in the nation. Nearly two million people are now living in poverty as a result of the infamous $ 2 billion hidden debt scandal involving Frelimo officials, which reportedly cost Mozambique at least $ 11 billion. It also reportedly caused a significant drop in the cost of public healthcare in Cabo Delgado.
In this troubling setting, the wounds caused by electoral irregularities could easily lead to a devastating internal conflict if left untreated.
Thankfully, for now, Mondlane and his supporters persist in their belief that elections, rather than insurgency, serve as the most viable avenue for enacting change, even in the face of the many difficulties arising from Frelimo’s unscrupulous and inept administration. However, it’s impossible to predict that another group will choose to use the same strategy in the future. The population’s frustrations and desperation for change are persistently growing because of the apparent lack of interest in supporting Mozambican democracy supporters.
The SADC must get its act together right away to stop appeasing the ruling party and take concrete steps to put Mozambique on the verge of true democracy.
The SADC protocols’ leaders must ensure that Mozambique begins to fulfill its statutory obligations.
On January 15, Chapo was sworn in as Mozambique’s new president. In his first major performance as mayor, he fired Bernadino Rafael, the police chief who had been accused by opposition figures of working with criminal organizations to kidnap and kill civilian protesters following the election. The new president appears to be trying to win the support of the populace by allowing the angry electorate to forgive and forget the state-sanctioned violence that accompanied his ascension to office.
The people, however, will not forget. The SADC should not forget either of these.
The regional body must now take action to ensure that the following election cycle doesn’t result in a repeat of the previous three months.
If it doesn’t, Mozambique could end up being reduced to a failed state in the near future, which runs the risk of becoming completely irrelevant.
Source: Aljazeera
Leave a Reply