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How long can Israel sustain a military conflict with Iran?

Leaders in Israel and the United States have indicated that the conflict against Iran could continue for weeks.

The US, led by President Donald Trump, has emphasised that this will not be a problem, and that its military has the capacity to conduct an extended fight. But for Israel, already fatigued by the cost of having inflicted a genocide on Gaza, as well as wars or attacks in Lebanon, Syria, and a previous round with Iran, a lengthy conflict could be more costly.

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Since it attacked Iran on Saturday, Israel has endured repeated missile and drone strikes, forcing widespread air raid alerts, school closures, and the mobilisation of tens of thousands of reservists.

Cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv have faced sustained attacks, emergency services are stretched, and a public, unused to war on the scale their government has inflicted upon others, has spent the past few days in and out of bomb shelters.

For now, enthusiasm for the war is high. Interviews with Israelis in most major cities show a hunger to confront an enemy that the public was told for decades was determined to exterminate them. With the exception of the far-left, politicians have rallied to the government banner.

“As soon as the war started, Israel was swept in a wave of militarism,” Israeli political economist Shir Hever said.

“It was not the same as [the June 2025 12-day war]. Then, it was mostly panic, an existential fear that Iran could destroy Israel. Now, it is gung-ho militarism and overconfidence. Even the war critics – who are few and far between – recommend that [Israeli Prime Minister] Netanyahu keep the war ‘short’, as if Israel can decide when it ends.”

Support for the war is part of what many see as a radicalisation of Israeli society. Previously peripheral far-right politicians have made their way into the centre of government, with political polarisation and economic strain accelerating the flow of the young and talented out of the country.

Those who remain are already conditioned to think of Iran as the fundamental enemy of their country, and weeks of war may militarise the society even further.

“It’s like the UK blitz in World War II,” Daniel Bar-Tal, an academic at Tel Aviv University, said.

“Then, the British accepted this bombardment because they saw themselves as fighting this ultimate evil. Israelis have the same feeling. We are indoctrinated into believing, almost from birth, that Iran is evil, which is reinforced through kindergarten, high school, and the army.”

For Bar-Tal, it is impossible to guess what kind of Israeli society might emerge from weeks of renewed war, only that the country’s past moral certitude in the righteousness of its establishment had not been dented by the massacres committed during the 1948 Nakba, nor the recent Gaza genocide.

“Now, we have a generation who are still more militaristic and more rightist, with Netanyahu telling us we now need to live by the sword. It’s just more evidence that Israel needs enemies to survive.”

Bombs and guns

Beyond the social impacts, Israel has military calculations to take into account if the war does drag on.

Most pressing is determining how long Israel can sustain the current levels of warfare against an opponent of Iran’s scale and military heft. This will be affected by both the support it receives from its allies, such as those in the US and Europe, and whether its defences become exhausted before those of Iran, defence analyst Hamze Attar said.

“In the first three days of the war, Iran launched more than 200 ballistic missiles at Israel,” he told Al Jazeera. “To put that into context, during the 12-day war, they launched around 500, each requiring that Israel counter by launching an interceptor rocket. That’s probably more than Israel has the capacity to counter, so, without US help, it would probably have lost control of its airspace by now.”

Israel has three different air defence systems: the Iron Dome, for short-range rockets and artillery; David’s Sling, to counter medium-range rockets and cruise missiles; and Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, designed to intercept ballistic missiles

The Israelis do not disclose the number of interceptors they have in stock, but Israel began to run low on interceptor stocks during the 12-day war, indicating that it will become more difficult to maintain a high level of interceptions if the war continues for a lengthy period. This would lead to a rationing of interceptors and a focus on defending military and political targets, potentially leading to more civilian casualties.

According to Israeli and US sources, Iran has been producing ballistic missiles at a rate of 100 per month in the aftermath of June’s conflict, Attar said, which would suggest that Tehran had already amassed a significant stockpile.

However, Attar was quick to point out that the Iranian threat is also based on the types of ballistic missiles they have.

“We don’t know what type of ballistic missiles,” Attar said, outlining the different types of missiles: long-range, reaching as far as Greece and the Mediterranean; medium-range, reaching Israel; and short-range, which can target the Gulf states.

“Likewise, we don’t know how many [missiles] they [Iran] had before the 12-day war, how many were destroyed during that war, or how many launchers they have,” Attar added. “If you don’t have the launchers, which the US and Israel are targeting, it doesn’t matter how many missiles you have. It’s like having bullets without a rifle.”

Economic considerations

More than two years of almost constant war have taken their toll on Israel’s economy, analysts warned, with the cost of munitions weighing on the Israeli purse, and the deployment of a reservist force numbered in their hundreds of thousands for periods far longer than any planners had originally conceived of.

Israel’s spending in 2024 on the wars in Lebanon and Gaza was reported to have reached $31bn, contributing to the country’s highest budget deficit in years. Preliminary figures from 2025 show spending on war reaching $55bn.

The pressure on the economy led to the downgrading of Israel’s sovereign credit rating in 2024 by all three major credit rating agencies.

“Israel is experiencing a debt crisis, an energy crisis, a transportation crisis, [and] a health service crisis,” Hever said.

But none of these would be enough to halt Israel’s military campaigns on their own, the political economist cautioned. “This is not a question of economy, but a question of technology.”

All you need to know about new F1 cars

Andrew Benson

F1 Correspondent
  • 22 Comments

The Formula 1 cars that will start the new season at this weekend’s Australian Grand Prix are very different from the ones that finished 2025.

Over the winter, the teams have been wrestling with the biggest rule change in F1 history – engines, chassis, tyres and fuel are all subject to new regulations.

On the surface, the cars look similar – they are still single-seaters with front and rear wings and exposed wheels.

But the engine design has changed, the chassis have a new aerodynamic philosophy, the fuels are fully sustainable carbon-neutral concoctions made from waste biomass or synthetic industrial processes, and the tyres are smaller.

The engines

Just as last year, the engines are 1.6-litre V6 turbo hybrids producing close to 1,000bhp. But their architecture has changed and so has the split between internal combustion engine (ICE) and electrical parts of the power-units.

The split between ICE and electrical is more or less 50-50 (in reality, it’s more like 52-48, but that’s less catchy), where last year it was about 80-20.

The electrical side now produces up to 350kw (470bhp), three times as much as last year. But the battery is about the same size.

Between 2014-25 the engines had two motor generator units recovering energy – one on the rear axle known as the MGU-K (for kinetic) and one on the turbo shaft known as the MGU-H (heat).

Now, though, the MGU-H, which was ingenious but highly complex and expensive, has been removed, leaving only the K.

The idea was to attract more car manufacturers into F1. On that basis, it was a success – Audi, General Motors and Ford have all entered F1 because of the new rules, and Honda has reversed a decision to quit.

But the removal of the MGU-H, and the decision not to allow energy recovery from the front axle, has left the cars energy starved.

Their batteries are constantly being emptied and recharged but it’s impossible to recover enough energy to have maximum power at all times. This has led to some significant changes for the drivers, more of which in a moment.

The cars

Max Verstappen driving the 2026 Red Bull during pre-season testing in BahrainGetty Images

From 2022-25, the cars were based around an aerodynamic philosophy known as ‘ground effect’. They had curved venturi tunnels under the car – essentially turning the underside of the car into two giant wings – which created an area of low pressure that sucked the car to the track.

Governing body the FIA decided to abandon this approach because it led to cars that needed to be run low and with very stiff suspension for optimum performance. The drivers have welcomed this change because the previous cars were uncomfortable to drive and led to back problems.

The new cars have reverted to what is known as a “step-plane” philosophy. The underside is flat in the area between the wheels, with a central part – the chassis, in which the driver sits – lower than the floor on either side.

In addition, the cars have been made narrower, smaller and about 30kg lighter, to increase their manoeuvrability.

For now, the cars will be a little slower around a lap – it was about two seconds or so in pre-season testing in Bahrain. But that will change as development matures the designs.

The most obvious change, though, is to the front and rear wings.

The engine formula was arrived at before the chassis rules, and it quickly became obvious that the cars would be energy starved. So compromises had to be made to help the cars work better with the new engines and harvest sufficient energy.

Braking is the predominant way of recovering energy in a hybrid car, but the old cars would not have been braking for long enough to generate sufficient electricity.

To increase top speeds and increase braking distances, the rule-makers came up with moveable aerodynamics, which will be known as ‘straight-line mode’ – the front and rear wings will lie flat on the straights to reduce drag.

The tyres were reduced in width for the same reason – by 25mm at the front and 30mm at the rear.

The knock-on effect of that is that the old drag-reduction system (DRS) overtaking aid, which opened the rear wings on the straights for a speed boost for a car if it was within one second of the car in front, could no longer be used. The wings were already open for another reason.

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The complicated bit

So far, so relatively simple. But this is F1, so it gets complicated pretty quickly.

The need to recover energy to a much greater extent than last year, and the limited ways of doing that, have led to the driving challenge changing significantly.

Of course, in the corners, the drivers are still pushing the car to the limit of grip and going in, through and out of the bends as quickly as possible. The vast majority of the time, anyway.

Energy recovery has even changed that, though. In many corners, particularly slow-speed ones, drivers will be using higher gears than would be optimum if cornering speed were the only concern.

That’s to keep the turbo spinning so the engines can be run against the MGU-K to charge the battery.

But that’s just one way of recovering energy. The others are:

There are other layers of complication beyond that. We won’t go too deep, but one thing to know about is that, as things stand, teams are allowed to recover energy at the maximum 350kw during lift and coast, but only at 250kw when super-clipping.

There is ongoing debate about whether that should change and the full 350kw be allowed at all times, to make energy recovery more efficient and easier.

The engineers work out in advance the optimum use of the energy recovery and deployment around the lap to produce the best overall lap time.

Now we come to why we caveated the concept of the drivers being on the limit of grip in corners at all times. That’s because sometimes it’s more lap-time efficient not to deploy energy in high-speed corners, and save it for acceleration out of slow-speed ones.

What about using the energy?

Mercedes' George Russell with Ferrari's Charles Leclerc right behind him and then Williams' Carlos Sainz during pre-season testing in BahrainGetty Images

Generally, energy use is pre-set by the team. But there are situations in which the driver can take over control of the system.

One of these is the overtake mode described above. The other is a “boost” mode. This simply means that at the press of a button the driver can request maximum power from the battery.

Unlike overtake, this can be used at any point around the track, for both attack and defence.

Drivers will have to calculate whether to use it on a risk versus reward basis.

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Destruction seen after attack on Iran’s Assembly of Experts building

NewsFeed

Videos show the aftermath of an air attack on Iran’s Assembly of Experts building in the city of Qom, south of the Iranian capital Tehran. The Assembly is the body that will choose the successor to the assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Man Utd eye wingers, after getting rid under Amorim

Simon Stone

Manchester United reporter
  • 131 Comments

Michael Carrick has said Manchester United could look to sign a left winger this summer – even though they spent the past three transfer windows under Ruben Amorim getting rid of wide players.

Historically, many successful United sides have been built around wingers.

George Best, Ryan Giggs, David Beckham and Cristiano Ronaldo are regarded among some of the club’s greatest players – while others such as Steve Coppell, Gordon Hill, Willie Morgan and Andrei Kanchelskis also made a significant impact.

Although not a winger in the orthodox sense, Busby Babe Eddie Colman was nicknamed ‘snake hips’ for his ability to change direction at top speed.

United began last season with five experienced wide players.

Between them, Jadon Sancho, Antony and Amad Diallo cost the club £173m.

Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho both came through the United’s youth ranks, although the latter was at Atletico Madrid before moving to Manchester as a 16-year-old in 2020.

Sancho is currently on loan at Aston Villa, having spent last season at Chelsea, who paid a £5m clause to send the 25-year-old back to United last summer rather than sign him permanently.

His contract is set to expire in the summer, and it seems unlikely United will keep the England international, signed by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2021. Solskjaer intended to play him on the right but the player said his preference was to play on the left.

Antony left for Real Betis in a £21.65m deal last September, a couple of days after Garnacho joined Chelsea for £40m.

Rashford, who also prefers to play on the left, spent the second half of last season at Villa following a fall-out with Amorim, and then joined Barcelona on loan last summer.

Barca have a £26m option to buy Rashford, and talks have started over the possibility of triggering it.

However, sources close to the player have indicated no agreement is in place – and given Rashford has two years left on his £325,000-a-week United contract, further negotiation is going to be required.

It leaves Amad as the only orthodox wide player available to Carrick, although he has also used Patrick Dorgu, who joined from Lecce as a wing-back under Amorim, in a more offensive role.

Although it is not clear yet who will be in charge once the season has reached its conclusion, Carrick has repeatedly said the decisions he is making are for the club’s long-term interests.

Asked if left-wing specifically was an area that might need addressing, Carrick replied: “I think you’re always looking at the balance of the team and the squad to give you the utmost flexibility, so it’s definitely something to look at, for sure.”

Diomande and Gordon linked

Carrick did state the situation “was not a huge concern at the moment” and that he felt there were options available to him that allowed him variety in attack.

“We can still be dangerous,” said the 44-year-old.

“Matheus [Cunha] has played that role and caused big problems and had big moments. When he plays wide, he is tough to stop one-on-one.”

But Cunha is happiest drifting away from the touchline and likes to get on the ball in deeper or more central positions.

In the junior ranks, Gibraltar international James Scanlon was virtually an ever-present in the Premier League 2 side for the first half of the season and is capable of playing in an attacking role on both sides of the pitch, but he has now joined League Two promotion chasers Swindon on loan.

England Under-20 international Shea Lacey made a huge impact in three substitute appearances for the senior team but he prefers to play on the right. In any event, he has only been involved once since getting sent off in the FA Cup third-round defeat by Brighton on 11 January, when he was an unused substitute against Fulham last month.

Few supporters would claim United were wrong to get rid of Sancho or Antony.

Some believe Amorim could have handled the Garnacho situation better, although the Argentina international is yet to impress on a consistent basis at Chelsea, while Rashford’s time at his boyhood club seemed to have run its course.

Nevertheless, at a time when United are trying to control their budget and costs across the club are being cut, the wide-left situation highlights an historical weakness in their recruitment strategy.

It also raises questions about the wisdom of hiring a coach like Amorim, whose tactics differed so significantly from what fans had been used to.

United were prepared to sanction the £65m signing of Antoine Semenyo in January, but the former Bournemouth man opted to join Manchester City.

Amorim wanted to use the money elsewhere in his squad. United’s refusal suggests they are targeting specific areas, and the left side of their attack is one of them.

They are among several high-profile Premier League clubs to be linked with RB Leipzig’s 19-year-old Ivory Coast international Yan Diomande, who is likely to cost around £70m if he opts to move in the summer.

Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon has also been mentioned, although it is not clear whether United have an interest in the England international.

United’s situation is complicated by the fact they are prioritising bringing in at least one, and possibly two central midfield players.

Experienced Brazil captain Casemiro is leaving at the end of the season and £50m Uruguay international Manuel Ugarte has only made three substitute appearances – totalling 27 minutes – under Carrick.

No changes can be made until the transfer window opens anyway, so, for now, Carrick must make the best of his present options.

“We’re always thinking of that perfect scenario of mixing players together and connections and seeing how it suits on the pitch,” he said.

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China set to release new five-year plan at National People’s Congress

China is set to unveil a sweeping economic agenda for the next five years during a meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) over the next week at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 will be released during the NPC, one of China’s most important political meetings of the year, which starts on Thursday in Beijing and typically runs for a week, drawing 3,000 delegates from across China.

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The last five-year plan was released in March 2021, as Beijing tackled the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

This time around, analysts say, China’s leaders will need to explain their approach to new challenges, from the economic fallout of United States President Donald Trump’s trade war to the stalling of consumer confidence at home.

The NPC runs in parallel to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which began on Wednesday, and together, they are known as the “Two Sessions”.

The CPPCC does not have the power to pass legislation, but it can make policy suggestions, and its committees play an important role in providing feedback to the Chinese leadership.

But the NPC is known as China’s “supreme organ of state power”, the highest government body and though functionally separate from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), in practice, the congress is guided by the CCP’s policy recommendations.

According to Changhao Wei, founder of NPC Observer, an independent website monitoring the congress, this week’s gathering is due to codify its relationship with the CCP in the drafting of five-year plans under a forthcoming “Law on National Development Plan”.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang will also share the latest Government Work Report this week, outlining the state of China’s economy over the past 12 months and upcoming growth targets.

China is expected to announce a gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund, plus desired adjustments of interest rates in light of inflation, unemployment and the fiscal deficit.

Members of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) leave the Great Hall of the People amid snowfall on Tiananmen Square, before the opening sessions of the annual Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and National People's Congress (NPC), in Beijing, China, March 4, 2026. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
Members of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army leave the Great Hall of the People amid snowfall before the opening sessions of the annual Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and National People’s Congress, in Beijing, on March 4, 2026 [Tingshu Wang/Reuters]

Absolute loyalty 

This year’s delegate list for both events is notable for the absence of at least 19 delegates whose credentials were revoked last week, signalling they are under disciplinary action. The list of those disciplined, published last week by state media, included nine high-ranking members of the military.

They are among the more than 100 military officers who have been dismissed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in recent years on various charges, including corruption.

The dismissals have been interpreted as a strategic move by Xi, who removed presidential term limits in 2018, to consolidate his leadership and remove factions within China’s sprawling governance structures.

“Xi is trying to ensure the Chinese Communist Party’s governance system is run by absolute loyalty to him and that no one else has enough power base independent of him to potentially challenge his authority,” said William Yang, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Northeast Asia.

While China no longer relies on Soviet-style state planning, its tradition of five-year plans sets out a midterm roadmap for economic reform, government spending, fiscal policy, industrial and energy targets and more.

Yang told Al Jazeera that he expects “industrial self-reliance” to be at the top of the agenda as China continues to compete with the US for technological dominance.

“The Chinese government is expected to outline a series of technology and science initiatives aiming at developing key sectors, including next-generation AI, advanced semiconductor production, industrial upgrades, and further expanding its renewable energy sector,” he said.

The five-year plan will address how officials can fight the problem of “involution” or excessive and self-defeating competition, said Fred Gao, who writes the Inside China newsletter from Beijing.

The practice has seen Chinese companies enter “relentless price wars, undercutting each other to grab market share while ignoring product quality and service improvement”, Gao said.

“The end result is a vicious cycle of low price, low quality, and low margin that ultimately hollows out the competitiveness of entire industries,” he told Al Jazeera.

Another new concept to look out for at this week’s NPC will be mention of China’s “low altitude economy”, which refers to a plan to utilise drones and other low-altitude vehicles to expand China’s delivery and logistics networks.

Consumer-led growth

More challenging this week will be for Chinese officials to outline how they intend to steer China’s economy towards consumption-led growth.

China’s economy has long been powered by sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and real estate, meaning the transition will be a long process, while consumer confidence and spending were shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic and economic slowdown.

Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Group, told Al Jazeera he expected to see policies targeted at domestic demand and promoting growth in China’s service sector.

Gao said he will be watching how China expands consumption-focused policies and measures that will narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents, from minimum wage adjustments to higher pension payments.

Besides economic targets, the NPC also addresses social and environmental policies.

One new law that will be closely watched is the “Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress”, which will codify China’s approach to its 56 ethnic groups.

More than 90 percent of the Chinese population is ethnic Han who use Standard Chinese as their main language, but the vast nation is home to scores of ethnicities, languages and dialects.

Timoney happy he didn’t give up on Ireland dream

David Mohan

BBC Sport NI journalist
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Talent was never in question, but Six Nations appearances eluded Nick Timoney until this year and while the 30-year-old is yet to start for Ireland in the competition, the back row insists he is “not worrying too much about what number I’ve got on my back”.

The Ulster back row made his debut against the USA in 2021 but by the start of 2025, had made just four further appearances with two of those against the Maori All Blacks.

However, perseverance has started to pay off as after featuring against Georgia, Japan and Australia last year, Timoney has been introduced as a replacement in each of the three games in the 2026 Six Nations, crossing for a try in the opening defeat by France.

While the Dublin native would prefer to start when Ireland host Wales on Friday [20:10 GMT], he is happy to play his part and if that is best served off the bench, then so be it.

“Obviously I haven’t played in the Six Nations before this season and it’s something I’ve always dreamed of so obviously from that point of view just feeling very grateful to be given the opportunities,” he told reporters this week.

“Everyone wants to start and I’d love to start as well, a lot of people say to me, friends and family, have said to me, ‘you’ve been going well of the bench, when are you going to start’, obviously I’d love to start but I still feel like I’m playing a game.

“If you come on for 30 minutes at Twickenham, you could argue the game wasn’t necessarily in the balance at that stage but it’s a pretty important part of things.

McCloskey’s rise ‘an incredible story’

If Timoney required reassurance that working hard would pay off, he did not need to look too far with Ulster club-mate Stuart McCloskey enjoying a rebirth on the international scene which he regards as “an incredible story of perseverance”.

It also highlights that age is just a number in the mind of Ireland head coach Andy Farrell, which has served as added motivation for Timoney.

“Stu is showing what we’ve already known at Ulster for a number of years, that he’s one of the best players in the world.

“It feels like it’s been the talk of world rugby but I wouldn’t say it is in any way surprising to me. I’m delighted for him.

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There was a time when Timoney felt that door was indeed closed, but performances in the white jersey of Ulster have led to opportunities in the green.

“There were definitely times I was fairly sure I wouldn’t be playing for Ireland again,” he admitted.

“Like last year’s Six Nations, I didn’t get picked in the wider squad and when you’re 29 and you have a couple of caps and it’s not like you’re a complete unknown, it’s fairly easy to believe that the chances might not come round again.

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