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United States President Donald Trump has publicly mused about the leadership he would like to see in Iran following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

During an Oval Office appearance on Tuesday with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, one reporter asked Trump what plans he had made for a “worst-case scenario” in Iran, as the US and Israel continue to wage war on the country.

Trump replied that he had few worries from a military standpoint, but he expressed concern that Khamenei could be succeeded by another leader unfriendly to US priorities.

“I guess the worst case would be we do this, and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person, right? That could happen. We don’t want that to happen,” Trump said.

“It would probably be the worst. You go through this and then, in five years, you realise you put somebody in who is no better.”

Shifting rationales

The US and Israel launched their military offensive on February 28, and Iran has responded with a barrage of attacks primarily aimed at Israel and US bases across the Middle East.

The death toll in Iran has reached at least 787 people. Injuries and deaths have also been reported across the region. At least six US service members have been killed in the fighting.

The Trump administration has offered a range of rationales to justify the attack, though experts have condemned the offensive as a violation of international law.

One of the rationales offered by Trump himself was the removal of Khamenei’s government.

In a prerecorded statement published over the weekend, Trump said the US military action was designed for “eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime”.

He added that he sought to “prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America” and issued a call for Iranian opposition members to “take over your government”.

Other administration officials, however, attempted to downplay regime change as a motive for the ongoing attacks, including Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth.

“This is not a so-called regime change war,” Hegseth told reporters on Monday. “But the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it.”

Venezuela a model for Iran?

Still, in Tuesday’s remarks, Trump suggested a vision for Iran’s future that reflects the outcome of his recent military intervention in Venezuela.

On January 3, Trump authorised a military attack on the South American country that culminated with the abduction of then-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. The couple is currently in New York, where they await trial on charges related to drug trafficking.

Following Maduro’s removal, his vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim leader, with the Trump administration’s support.

Ever since, Rodriguez’s government has largely acceded to US demands, including by surrendering millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil.

Trump, meanwhile, has warned that Rodriguez could “pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro”, if she “doesn’t do what’s right”.

But on Tuesday, Trump once again indicated that the Rodriguez government has been cooperative, and he was satisfied with the results of January’s attack in Venezuela. He hinted it could be a model for Iran’s future, as well.

“Venezuela was so incredible because we did the attack, and we kept government totally intact. And we have Delcy, who’s been very good. We have the whole chain of command,” Trump said.

He also underscored the economic benefits he hopes to extract, as the US continues to exercise control of Venezuela’s oil. He called the process “seamless”.

“The relationship’s been great. We’ve taken out a hundred million barrels of oil already. And a big part of that goes to them, and a big part goes to us,” Trump said.

“It’s been great. We paid for the war many times over, and we’re going to be running the oil. And Venezuela’s going to make more money than they ever made.”

Barriers to Trump’s vision

But Trump nevertheless signalled that there were hurdles to implementing a Venezuela-style regime change in Iran.

The US and Israeli attacks on Iran, Trump indicated, had killed many of the alternative leaders he had hoped to see in power.

“Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” Trump said. “We had some in mind from that group that is dead. And now, we have another group. They may be dead also, based on reports.”

He added that his options for replacing Khamenei were running low. “Pretty soon, we’re not going to know anybody.”

Still, Trump has repeatedly expressed ambivalence about the leadership prospects of Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah, who was exiled during the 1979 revolution.

Pahlavi, 65, has pitched himself as a candidate to lead Iran on an interim basis, in a bid to restore democracy.

But critics have argued that Pahlavi is a divisive figure. His father oversaw human rights abuses during his time as monarch, and Pahlavi himself has been accused of attacking fellow dissidents and failing to build a coalition.

When asked if Pahlavi could be an alternate leadership candidate, Trump demurred.

“I guess he is. Some people like him,” Trump said, before adding, “We haven’t been thinking too much about that. It would seem to me that somebody from within, maybe, would be more appropriate.”

Trump then explained he would prefer a moderate, “somebody that’s there, that’s currently popular, if there is such a person”. Still, he did offer light praise for Pahlavi, repeating a comment he had previously made about the shah’s son.

US President Donald Trump said he is not looking for somebody “who is no better” than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s leader, as exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi is discussed as a possible alternative. Trump said he wants a leader who can “bring it back for the people”.

The 2026 primary season, in which voters in the United States determine which candidates will represent the major Republican and Democratic political parties in the November midterm elections, has begun in earnest with votes in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas.

The polls kicked off just four days after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, sparking a regional war that has seen Iran launch retaliatory strikes across the Middle East. The fighting has so far left hundreds dead, including at least 787 in Iran, six members of the US military, and several civilians across the Gulf.

At the same time, the war has touched on several issues expected to dominate the US midterm season, with Democrats hammering concerns over US affordability and Republicans seeking to square US President Donald Trump’s “America First” vows with the latest military adventurism.

The outcome of Tuesday’s election will give an early temperature of the US electorate ahead of the midterm vote, which will determine whether Republicans maintain their slim control over both the US Senate and the House of Representatives.

One of the biggest tests will be in Texas, where Democrats have long hoped to win a statewide office, something they have not done since 1994.

Some watching politics have suggested a match-up between Democratic hopeful James Talarico, who has pitched himself as a Christian liberal and centrist seeking to speak directly to Trump’s voters, and Republican challenger Ken Paxton, who has hewed closely to Trump, could give Democrats the best shot at turning a seat in the US Senate.

Talarico, a seminary school student, has walked a careful line on Iran’s war, posting following Saturday’s strikes: “No More Forever Wars”, a reference to Trump’s own campaign pledge.

In a subsequent speech, Talarico referenced the US military members killed since the war began, but otherwise avoided wading deeply into the politically charged subject.

His primary election opponent in the Senate race, Democrat congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, has taken a more confrontational approach, in line with a fiery, forthright style she has said the party needs in the age of Trump.

“The question is, how many more lives will have to be lost before people will heed the warnings?” she said in a video response to the strikes, pointing to the high population of US veterans in the state.

“This president has engaged in lawlessness since the day that he took office, and unfortunately, it is us – us Americans – that are going to suffer.”

Paxton, the current attorney general in Texas, has defended Trump’s attacks – but with an apparent eye towards growing unrest from Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement. In the final stretch of the race, he assured reporters that Trump was seeking a swift end to the fighting.

“He wants to get this over with,” he said.

Incumbent Senator John Cornyn has also said he was satisfied with Trump’s justifications for the strike, with the president portraying Iran’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities as an imminent threat to the US, claims for which he has provided little evidence.

“It takes a lot of political courage, because these things are easier to start than they are to end,” Cornyn said in an interview with Face the Nation published on Monday.

A test of party direction 

To be sure, the war has overlain, rather than transformed, many of the issues already dominating the race, including the cost of living, immigration, artificial intelligence, housing, healthcare and civil rights under the Trump administration.

In North Carolina, progressive candidate Nida Allam was quick to connect the war to support received by her opponent, incumbent Representative Valerie Foushee, from defence contractors and artificial intelligence super PACs, as well as her past support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

The issue dovetails with Allam’s opposition to an AI data centre in her district, in a race that has become the most expensive in the state’s history.

In an advertisement released on Monday, Allam focused on the bombing of a girls’ school in Minab, Iran, that left at least 165 dead, calling herself a “proudly un-compromised, pro-peace leader”.

Foushee, meanwhile, has co-sponsored legislation to rein in Trump’s ability to strike Iran, accusing the president of “violating the Constitution and risking another open-ended war with no clear objectives and no exit strategy”.

Both parties will also select their candidates to run for the open Senate seat left by retiring Republican Thom Tillis. Democrats will be hoping for an upset in November in the so-called “purple” state. having a roughly equal makeup of Democrats and Republicans.

Former Governor Roy Cooper, who has warned of “another costly, drawn-out war that puts our troops in harm’s way and removes focus and resources from needs here at home”, is considered the frontrunner in the crowded Democratic primary race, which includes five other candidates.

On the Republican side, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, who has been endorsed by Trump and has vowed to remain the president’s “ally in the Senate”, is expected to take victory in a six-way Republican race.

A wave of Democratic voter turnout on Tuesday would be a sign of strength heading into the November polls.

Opposing parties typically perform well in US midterm elections, and polls have shown dismay over Trump’s immigration policies, his stewardship of the US economy, and his military actions in Venezuela and, most recently, Iran.

Republicans have sought to seize on Trump’s claims of policy success during a first term that has stretched presidential norms and transformed the government.

Also closely watched will be the US Senate race in Texas between 78-year-old Representative Al Green, who was kicked out of Trump’s State of the Union address earlier this month after holding up a sign accusing the president of racism, and 37-year-old Representative Christian Menefee.

Both incumbents have been forced to face off for the Democratic ticket following the latest round of congressional redistricting in the state.

Another indication of the potency of Trump’s continued hold over the party could be the Texas race between Republican Representative Dan Crenshaw and challenger, state lawmaker Steve Toth.

Crenshaw has been a vocal supporter of many of Trump’s policies, including his decision to launch a war with Iran, but has been critical of several figures in the president’s orbit.