India-Canada diplomatic row reignites: What to know and what comes next

EXPLAINER

The most recent row started on Monday when India’s Ministry of External Affairs claimed to have received “diplomatic communication” from Canada claiming Indian diplomats were being treated as “persons of interest” in connection with an investigation in the North American nation.

After the Canadian government announced it was looking into a link between Indian government agents and Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s killing on Canada’s west coast, New Delhi and Ottawa’s relations reached new lows last year.

New Delhi has denied any involvement in Nijjar’s killing, reiterating on Monday that it “strongly” rejected the “preposterous imputations” from Canada and would be withdrawing its diplomats and other officials from the country.

The Canadian government then announced the expelling of six Indian diplomats after they learned that federal police had found proof that Indian agents were engaged in a public safety investigation.

What we know about the growing diplomatic conflict, what Canada and India have said in response, and what might come next:

What has Canada said?

• The federal Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) uncovered “clear and compelling evidence” that Indian government agents have engaged in and continue to do so, according to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday.
• “This includes clandestine information-gathering techniques, coercive behaviour targeting South Asian Canadians, and involvement in over a dozen threatening and violent acts, including murder”, Trudeau said during a news conference.
• The RCMP earlier in the day announced that it had discovered evidence of Indian government agents’ involvement in “serious criminal activity in Canada,” including connections to “homicides and violent acts” and “irregular interference in democratic processes,” among other things.
• The RCMP stated in a statement that the evidence was directly presented to Government of India officials, asking for their cooperation in halting the violence and requesting that our law enforcement partners work together to address these issues.
• Global Affairs Canada, the country’s foreign affairs ministry, then announced that six Indian diplomats and consular officials were being kicked out of Canada “in response to a targeted campaign against Canadian citizens by agents connected to the Government of India.”
• Among those given instructions to leave was India’s high commissioner in Canada.
• Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly directly connected the Indian officials to the Nijjar case in a statement. “The decision to expel these individuals was made with great consideration and only after the RCMP gathered ample, clear, and concrete evidence that identified six individuals as persons of interest in the Nijjar case,” Joly said.

What has India said?

India’s Ministry of External Affairs vehemently rejected Canada’s allegations, saying in a statement on Monday that “on the pretext of an investigation, there is a deliberate strategy of smearing India for political gains”.
• The ministry added that, “despite many requests from our side, the Canadian government has not shared a shred of evidence” with the Indian government.
• The ministry later claimed to have called Canada’s charge d’affaires in India to inform him that “the Indian High Commissioner and other Canadian diplomats and officials were completely unacceptable.”
• “We have no faith in the current Canadian Government’s commitment to ensure their security. Therefore, the Government of India has decided to withdraw the High Commissioner and other targeted diplomats and officials”, it said, adding that New Delhi “reserves the right to take further steps” in response.
• The ministry then announced in a tongue-in-cheek manner that it would be ejecting six Canadian diplomats from India, including the acting high commissioner, and would give them until October 19 to leave.

How did India-Canada ties reach this point?

After Trudeau announced that Canadian authorities were looking into “credible allegations of a potential link” between Indian government agents and the killing of Canadian citizen Nijjar, tensions between the two nations soared in September 2023.
• Nijjar was fatally shot on June 18, 2023, outside a Sikh temple where he served as president, in Surrey, British Columbia. He had a leading role in the Sikh campaign for a sovereign state in the Punjab region of India known as the Khalistan movement.
• The Indian government has urged Western countries to repress leaders of the Khalistan movement, despite the country’s own largely dormant internal security apparatus.
• India vehemently denied the allegations that it was involved in Nijjar’s killing, calling them “absurd”. It also accused Nijjar of being involved in “terrorism” – a claim rejected by his supporters.
• After India and Canada’s accusations were first made public, both nations withdrew their respective diplomats.
• In May 2024, Canadian police announced that they had arrested three men, all Indian nationals, accused of being involved in Nijjar’s murder. The RCMP stated at the time that it was also “investigating any connections to the Indian government.”
• A fourth man, also an Indian national, was arrested and charged in Nijjar’s killing later that month.
• Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar claimed that the country was “compelled” by the “political compulsion” to blame India for the recent events in Canada.

What comes next?

• It remains to be seen if India, as its foreign ministry said on Monday, would take “further steps” in response to Canada’s accusations – and if it does, what those steps could entail.
• The most recent accusations by Canada, according to Stephanie Carvin, a political analyst and professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, were “very serious” and “very likely to hampered India’s relations.” That “puts Canada in a difficult position”, she said.
• “We are currently witnessing countries from all over the world trying to develop their relations with India,” according to the European Union, the United States, and Australia. She told Al Jazeera, “This kind of makes us offside all of our other allies.”
• Practically speaking, Carvin also noted that Canada has a sizable population of South Asians and that many Indian students also study there. “These Indian]nationals], they do need consular services, they need diplomatic representation in this country”, she said.
• Sikh Canadians reported to Al Jazeera over the past year that their ethnic group, which includes the largest Sikh diaspora outside of India and has 770, 000 residents spread across Canada, was concerned about Indian state interference.
• The World Sikh Organization of Canada, a nonprofit that advocates for the community, said it welcomed the Canadian government’s announcement on Monday and demanded “the full prosecution of all individuals involved” in Nijjar’s killing, including Indian diplomats.
• The Government of India’s continued foreign-interference activities in Canada and its history of deceiving Sikhs there have been Sikhs’ lived experiences for the past 40 years, according to the group.