How the Premier League run-in is shaping up

It’s tense at the top and nail-biting at the bottom.

With fewer than 10 rounds of games left, we take a look at how the Premier League title race, the fight for Champions League places and the relegation battle are shaping up.

At the summit, Arsenal enjoy a seven-point lead over Manchester City but have played a game more.

Looking at the remaining fixtures, the Gunners have a slightly easier run-in on paper, although their eight remaining games include what could be a title-defining trip to the Etihad on 19 April.

While some have questioned Arsenal’s ability to go on and win the league, it’s clear that Manchester City haven’t been the terrifying force of seasons past.

In fact, only twice under Pep Guardiola have they had fewer points after 29 games than their haul of 60 this term – in their first season under him back in 2016-17 (58) and last season (48).

Good news for Arsenal fans is that the most dominant team statistically – in terms of expected goal difference per game, excluding penalties – have won the Premier League in three of the past four seasons.

The exception came when Manchester City pipped the Gunners to the title two years ago.

With fifth place likely to lead to Champions League qualification again, just three points separate Manchester United, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool for a place in the top five, with one of those sides looking set to miss out.

Some would say Aston Villa have the easiest run-in of the quartet. After a tough trip to Old Trafford this weekend, they face four of the bottom six in their next six games, although whether playing sides fighting for survival is an advantage at this stage is debatable.

A couple of months ago Aston Villa looked almost nailed on for a top-five finish as they sat at least eight points clear of the other three teams despite their underlying numbers being much worse.

In the battle at the bottom, Wolves and Burnley are all but down barring a footballing miracle, which leaves one spot that is likely to be filled by one of Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and West Ham.

With the most points on the board already, Leeds have the kindest run-in on paper, with just one game against a side from the top six (Manchester United on 13 April) and home games against both of the bottom two.

However, the reason why Tottenham and Nottingham Forest fans have reason to be nervous is that West Ham’s performances have improved considerably under Nuno Espirito Santo’s guidance in recent weeks.