How Scotland went from title contenders to worried about Italy

Six Nations: Scotland v Italy

Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 1 February Kick-off: 14: 15 GMT

After 25 years of causing all the false dawns, all the lost hope, and other emotions to be ingrained in Scottish rugby fans, you’d think the Gods of the Six Nations would be done with them by now.

But, no, A few weeks ago, Gregor Townsend beamed brightly as he spoke about his largely injury-free squad. It was a time of wholesale optimism. Old sceptics, hard-bitten by a quarter of a century of nothingness, were beginning to turn. Maybe, just maybe, this was Scotland’s year.

Before the week was done, Sione Tuipulotu was out of the tournament. The captain, the powerhouse, the playmaker, one of the great personalities of the team – gone.

Then Scott Cummings got injured and Scotland’s beast factor was reduced. You need to bring as many heavies as you can to compete in the Six Nations. Cummings was out and so was his understudy, Max Williamson, the young brute who showed up so wonderfully against the mighty Boks in the autumn.

The Gods haven’t let up. Josh Bayliss almost certainly should have played for Italy, but Townsend suffered a broken ankle last Sunday.

Dylan Richardson, who’d have been on the bench as back-up hooker, is on the casualty list. Dave Cherry is now first-choice. Cherry, a skilled set-piece man but unexpected addition, last made a surprise appearance with Scotland when he fell from the team hotel in Nice during the World Cup. Since then, he hasn’t been seen anywhere on the world.

Jonny Gray is in from the start by necessity. Gray hasn’t played a Test match in two years, has only played three times since late October and hasn’t played at all since mid-December.

The Now Or Never tour would be the same as the rugby team if Townsend were to run a rock band instead. It’s his eighth Six Nations and, by his own admission, something needs to happen and soon.

In terms of caps won, experiences gained, and age profile, Scotland is on par. It’s a tad early to say now or never, but the broader point is correct. They don’t have forever.

They must win in Rome to take them on, which they haven’t defeated in Rome since. Italy won the Six Nations by three points in Paris a year ago after defeating Scotland and Wales in the final match, drawing with France (France played with 14 for the first half, and Italy hit the post from a penalty to win it).

Scoreboards don’t lie, but they mislead. In 2023, in Murrayfield, Scotland won 26-14 with Blair Kinghorn scoring a hat-trick. The reality of that match was that Italy were kicking their try-line out to make up for the lost lead, which was only four in Scotland’s favor after 79 minutes of play.

Our opinion of Italy has or ought to have changed. Some, perhaps subconsciously, still see them as a nailed-on win with only the margin up for discussion. That was the case for a long time, but not anymore.

They have class and power all over their team, they have clever creators, deadly finishers with dynamism and belligerence.

Scotland have lost more Six Nations games to Italy (eight) than all the other nations combined, so the warning signs are there, flashing blue. Would winning be a major surprise? Nobody who has been paying attention to them will remember them.

Townsend has injuries, but he’s not wallowing. He has complete faith in Stafford McDowall, who will replace Tuipulotu and bring some of his defensive and ball-carrying skills to the party.

McDowall is not Tuipulotu but he’s still a seriously accomplished footballer, a leader, a big presence who will relish a run in the team. Save for Cherry and the undercooked, but freakish unit, Gray, then this is an impressive Scotland team with an impactful bench.

And they’ll most likely need it. Scotland’s quick starts and slow finishes, as illustrated by the first day hair-raiser against Wales, were a consistent theme throughout the championship last year.

In the final quarter, they scored from first to third, to joint fifth to sixth in total, scoring points across four quarters of play. In the final quarter, they were again at their weakest as a result.

On the bench, Townsend has some incredible firepower. George Horne, Tom Jordan and Kyle Rowe can create things out of nothing. Gregor Brown, with his physicality and skill-set, could be a real breakout star. Although Jack Dempsey hasn’t played a lot of rugby, his intensity and carrying power might be just what Scotland need to win.