Syria’s economy is hampered by a number of Western sanctions that threaten its recovery after 14 years of civil war.
Former US President Bashar al-Assad and his regime were both subject to sanctions by the US and the European Union for crimes committed during the conflict, which started after pro-democracy protesters were imprisoned in 2011.
While al-Assad is now gone, the sanctions remain in place, including on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main group that overthrew al-Assad and is now leading Syria’s transition.
Some European officials recently stated that they would not impose sanctions until the new regimes in Syria demonstrate their commitment to promoting minority and joint power.
On January 3, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her French counterpart traveled to Syria. According to her, their goal is to “examine whether such a democratic process is feasible and whether human rights can be achieved.”
She said, “This is the entire subject of lifting sanctions.”
As part of an effort to persuade al-Assad to alter his behavior, Western policymakers contend that the new administration will need to follow suit. However, many Syrians think that the sanctions threaten to end Syria’s political transition as it recovers from years of annihilation and isolation.
You only need to know about Syria’s impact on Western sanctions by now.
How many times has Syria been sanctioned?
In 1979, the US designated Syria as a state sponsor of “terrorism” while al-Assad’s father, Hafez, was in power. For its continued occupation of Lebanon and for what Washington called its support of “terrorism,” the regime received additional targeted sanctions in 2004.
In response to the brutal repression of the opposition, the US and EU put targeted sanctions on a few government officials shortly after the widespread protests against Bashar al-Assad erupted in 2011.
As Syria’s political unrest increased, the US and the EU imposed more severe sanctions, hitting both the energy and central banks.
The government was unable to purchase or trade currency due to these sanctions, keeping the lights on in the majority of the nation, and importing almost any type of technology.
The US passed the Civilian Protection Act in 2019 after which it effectively forbade states and private companies from dealing with al-Assad’s government.
In addition, the US, EU and the United Nations Security Council have designated HTS a “terrorist” group due to its former links to al-Qaeda, which continue to make Western powers nervous about lifting sanctions.
Do these sanctions still apply?
They do.
The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and HTS’s “terrorist” designation are the most debilitating, according to Jerome Drevon, an expert on Syria with the International Crisis Group (ICG).
He claimed that the former indirectly affected all aspects of Syria’s economy by effectively preventing the nation from importing or exporting goods and raw materials.
The “terrorist” designation on HTS has a similar effect, he told Al Jazeera.
“Any transaction or investment in the country linked to the government]of HTS] … can be seen through the lens of supporting terrorism”, explained Drevon.
Do the sanctions harm aid operations?
Very much.
Sanctions continue to have a significant impact on aid organizations despite the fact that the US and the EU have issued a number of exemptions to support relief operations.
Aid organizations frequently have to navigate thorny bureaucratic humps to prevent banks and exporters from abusing US or EU sanctions, which can be severe and even jail time.
These challenges frequently cause protracted delays in the delivery of aid inside Syria. Even worse, the perceived risk of violating sanctions , – even if there is an exemption – has a chilling effect that acutely limits the aid response.
According to HRW, many banks and private companies prefer to avoid cooperating with aid organizations even when they are assured that they won’t be violating US and EU sanctions.
“Primate parties and financial institutions often avoid dealing, directly or indirectly, with Syrian individuals or entities even in non-sanctioned sectors”, HRW wrote in a report published last year.
Should sanctions be removed?
The new Syrian government has urged the US and other countries to lift sanctions, arguing that allowing Syria to rebuild itself would be essential.
Most of the sanctions should be lifted, Drevon argued.
He claimed that the al-Assad regime was the target of the majority of the sanctions that Syria is currently owed to it.
Those sanctions should be lifted, he said, now that the regime is gone.
If there are no viable alternatives, Drevon warned that the sanctions could make Syria more isolated and make more civilians resent the illicit economy.
“Sanctions threaten the destabilisation of the country in the mid-term”, he told Al Jazeera. We must consider how frequently armed groups can appear in various regions of the country and engage in smuggling and the black market to supplement it with money.
Is it too late to lift sanctions?
No, in a nutshell.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the US has begun issuing waivers to make it easier for aid organizations and private individuals to evade sanctions and intensify relief efforts there.
According to an advocate who did not wish to be identified, the suspension of sanctions would be “broad” , and would effectively permit direct transactions with the current authorities, according to an advocate who did not wish to be identified.
According to Drevon from ICG, the suspension of sanctions would also make it possible for a number of government-related business to be conducted.
The incoming US President-elect Donald Trump will make the decision to keep or lift sanctions on Syria after the suspension is scheduled to last for about six months.
Drevon argued that the US’s decision was a good first step, but more must be done to stabilize Syria throughout its delicate transition.
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