Ecuador set for run-off in presidential election dominated by security

Hard-right incumbent President Daniel Noboa and left-wing challenger Luisa Gonzalez are set for a second-round run-off in Ecuador’s presidential election, with preliminary results showing the pair neck and neck.

The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that with 80 percent of the ballots from Sunday’s first-round vote tallied, Noboa had 44.4 percent. Gonzalez followed closely, securing a better-than-anticipated 44.1 percent.

The 14 other candidates in the race, dominated by a teetering economy and drug-fuelled security crisis, trailed far behind.

“If the trend is maintained, Ecuadoreans will return to the ballot box on April 13”, CNE head Diana Atamaint said at a news conference.

People vote during the presidential election, in Guayaquil, Ecuador February 9, 2025]Reuters]

Surprise surge

The performance of 47-year-old Gonzalez, a political protege of former President Rafael Correa from the left-wing Citizen Revolution Movement party, was a surprise, driven by a surge in support.

She stated to cheery Quito residents that the race had “statistical tie” status and that they had won “a great victory.”

“We have won”, she declared.

Pre-election surveys had predicted a stronger result for Noboa, the 37-year-old son of a billionaire banana magnate who assumed office 14 months ago to finish his predecessor’s term.

He had hoped to garner the 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a head-to-head contest.

Still, the incumbent’s supporters were jubilant on Sunday, lighting fireworks in Quito and Guayaquil, the country’s two largest cities.

“We came to support the president, we want him to support us and change the country”, said 52-year-old secretary Myriam Medrano in Quito.

Referendum

The contest was widely viewed as a referendum on the country’s stalled economy and Noboa’s iron-fisted – or “mano dura” – approach to crime in the face of soaring murder, kidnappings and extortion driven by drug cartels.

Noboa has taken bold executive actions to combat violent crime, including putting the army on the streets and declaring an state of emergency.

Human rights organizations accuse the aggressive use of the armed forces of causing abuse, including the murder of four boys whose bodies were recently discovered close to an army base.

Noboa shut down its borders with Colombia and Peru on election day by placing heavily armed soldiers in polling locations across the nation.