Islamabad, Pakistan – When Omar Ayub Khan, the leader of the opposition and a member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), presented the party’s charter of demands to Ayaz Sadiq, the speaker of the country’s National Assembly, on Thursday, it seemed like the longstanding impasse between the government and the nation’s most popular party , might finally be resolved.
However, just 24 hours later, Imran Khan, former prime minister and PTI founder, was sentenced to 14 years in prison by an accountability court on charges of misuse of authority and corruption.
Late last year, the two parties had started discussions about a number of contentious issues, including the release of imprisoned PTI leaders, who the party calls “political prisoners” and addressing allegations of electoral fraud in the controversies of the previous year.
So far, three rounds of talks, moderated by National Assembly Speaker Sadiq, have taken place, with PTI presenting its charter of demand in the last meeting.
Within seven days, the government is expected to respond to those requests. However, Khan’s conviction rekindles fears that the country’s struggle with security and economic crisis may return after three years of political agitation.
The necessity of continuing dialogue was highlighted by Aasiya Riaz, co-director of the independent think tank Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT).
“Talks aimed at meaningful outcomes, for the sake of the country, must proceed”, she told Al Jazeera.
“Both sides, the establishment-backed government and the PTI, might revert to their respective tactics of pressure and agitation, respectively. This would lead to chaos and uncertainty, but eventually, they would have to return to the negotiating table”, Riaz added.
Once a favourite, now a pariah
Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022 through a parliamentary vote of no confidence. He claimed that Pakistan’s powerful military, his political rivals, and the United States conspired to take him out of power.
The military, considered Pakistan’s most influential power broker, has directly ruled the country for nearly three of its 76 years since independence. Three of Pakistan’s four military dictators ruled for almost ten years, with no prime minister ever serving.
Khan, who was once thought to enjoy the military’s backing, rose to power in August 2018 before falling out of favour.
Both the US and the military denied his accusations, but his ouster prompted a significant crackdown on PTI, with Khan leading multiple long marches and protests, railing against the establishment, as the military is euphemistically known in Pakistan.
On May 9, 2023, Khan was briefly detained in the Al-Qadir Trust corruption case, where he was sentenced on Friday.
His release within two days did little to quell the unrest as PTI supporters rampaged nationwide, targeting public buildings, military offices and installations, including the army headquarters in Rawalpindi.
Thousands of PTI members were arrested, and more than 100 were tried under military laws, with more than 80 sentenced to three to 10 years in prison. Khan also faces charges of inciting mutiny and “terrorism” related to those events.
Negotiation challenges
Despite setbacks, including Khan’s August 2023 arrest and legal obstacles to PTI’s participation in elections, the party’s candidates secured the highest number of seats in the February polls.
However, with Khan behind bars, the PTI’s leadership staged several protests in Islamabad, pressuring Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to release him.
In November, PTI launched a march to Islamabad, calling it the “final call”. The march was dispersed by police clashes, and PTI claimed that at least 12 of its employees had died, a figure that the government denies.
In its written demands, the PTI appears to have abandoned its call for the change in election results.
However, the party has urged the government to establish two independent probe teams with the mandate to look into the events of November 26 and May 9, 2023, the day of the march to Islamabad, last year. Additionally, it has pressed for the release of its “political prisoners.”
Abuzar Salman Niazi, a PTI core committee member, clarified the party’s stance.
We don’t want people to be released by executive orders. We demand an end to judicial interference. According to Niazi, a person who has been granted bail shouldn’t be detained immediately in a new case.
Negotiations will continue, Niazi added, noting that the current demands are just the beginning.
On these soft demands, the government had the opportunity to take action. We want to see the government take action to start these investigations into the May 9 and November 26 incidents, he continued. However, these are just to start.
Aqeel Malik, the government’s legal affairs spokesperson, said he also remains optimistic about the talks going on, despite Khan’s conviction.
Dialogue and court proceedings are separate issues. We have seven days to respond to PTI’s demands, and the prime minister has already formed a team to evaluate them”, Malik told Al Jazeera.
Reconciliation or deadlock?
Some analysts believe that the government has a chance to reconcile with the PTI by putting forth demands.
Ahmed Ijaz, an Islamabad-based political analyst, noted that the PTI’s omission of grievances about the February 2024 elections could ease negotiations.
“This allows the government to position itself as acting for stability”, Ijaz said.
On the other hand, political commentator Fahd Husain said that the PTI demands appear “fairly impractical” at this stage.
“Both commissions they seek resemble charge sheets, and many related matters are already in court”, Husain told Al Jazeera.
Malik, the government’s legal spokesperson, emphasised the need for clarity in PTI’s demands.
“For instance, the PTI says political prisoners should be released, but they never gave us any list of who do they mean. It appears to be an open-ended thing, including people who were involved in the May 9 or November 26 incidents. So, I think this is at a very nascent stage, but we have seven days to work on them”, he added.
“Positive development”
Over the past three years, Khan has repeatedly accused the military, particularly Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir, of being responsible for his party’s plight.
A recent meeting between current PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan (no relation to Imran Khan) and Munir in Peshawar raised questions despite the military’s insistence that political negotiations are not their domain.
PTI hailed the meeting as a “positive development” and claimed it presented demands to Munir. However, military sources said that the meeting focused solely on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s security.
The PTI-ruled Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province borders Afghanistan and has seen a number of attacks that Pakistan attributes to armed groups seeking refuge there.
But government officials, who are also part of the negotiating team, lashed out at the “politicisation” of the meeting with the army chief.
In a press conference held on Thursday in Islamabad, Senator Irfan Siddiqui claimed that “no direct talks are taking place outside the government’s negotiating team.”
Ijaz, the Islamabad-based analyst, however, viewed the meeting as significant.
“If dialogue with the army has begun, then the cases and convictions against Khan become irrelevant”, he said.
The road ahead
However, according to analysts, distrust between the PTI, the government, and the military may still be a problem.
According to PTI’s Niazi, the consequences of that leave the party with no choice but to resume its aggressiveness and re-enter agitation.
“What other option do you think we have, besides going back on streets and protesting? The government is in charge of the negotiations, but we are attempting to hold them with the intention of improving the country’s and the general public. They have to display a bigger role to make the dialogue a success”, the Lahore-based PTI leader said.
However, the Islamabad-based Husain said that the one hope that could “substantially” change things in Pakistan would be signals from Washington, DC, where Donald Trump is expected to take oath as President on Monday.
Source: Aljazeera
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