Democrats win special elections in Texas. How significant is it for Trump?

Democrats in the United States are rejoicing over a Texas State Senate special election victory they say reflects growing discontent with President Donald Trump’s policies, months before the US midterm elections.

Some commentators are describing the Democratic upset win in Texas as a “political earthquake”, but Trump has dismissed the contest as a “local” race.

Union leader Taylor Rehmet, a Democrat, defeated Trump-backed conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss in Saturday’s election, receiving 57 percent of the votes in a district that the US president won by 17 percentage points in November 2024.

The vote will not have any immediate major consequences. Republicans – who have dominated Texas politics for years – still have a strong majority in the state’s senate.

Still, Saturday’s contest could be an indicator of a broader voting trend in Texas and beyond, signalling a significant shift.

“A huge political earthquake in Texas tonight as Democrats flipped a State Senate seat from red to blue in a district Trump won by 17 points,” Democratic strategist Matt McDermott wrote in a social media post.

“Trump personally waded in — endorsing the Republican and personally urging base turnout — and was dealt a massive loss.”

The election was held to fill the seat of a Republican state senator who had resigned to serve as Texas’s comptroller.

Trump’s endorsement

On the morning of the election, Trump reiterated his endorsement of Wambsganss.

“I am asking all America First Patriots in Texas’ 9th State Senate District to please make a plan to GET OUT AND VOTE on Election Day, Saturday, January 31st, for a phenomenal Candidate, Leigh Wambsganss,” the US president wrote on his Truth Social platform.

He called Wambsganss a “warrior” of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. But when the results rolled in, the US president distanced himself from the vote.

“I’m not involved in that. That’s a local Texas race,” he told reporters on Sunday, stressing that he wasn’t on the ballot.

But the US president will not be on the ballot in the November midterm vote, either. And that will decide control of Congress.

If Democrats regain control of the US Senate and House of Representatives, they could impede Trump’s agenda and prevent him from passing any legislation.

How much should one read into the Texas result?

Opposition parties, seizing on their base’s anger, generally do well in special elections before the US midterms.

When Democratic Joe Biden was US president in 2021, voters in Virginia – which Democrats had won by 10 percentage points in 2020 – elected a Republican governor.

Similarly, the Democrats won a US Senate seat in deeply conservative Alabama during Trump’s first year in office in 2017.

But the swing in the Texas State Senate race – more than 30 percentage points from the 2024 election – is noteworthy.

The district covers Fort Worth near Dallas and other areas of Tarrant County – a traditional Republican stronghold.

Republicans also poured nearly $2.5m into the race, according to local reports, significantly outspending Rehmet and his Democratic allies.

‘Wake-up call’

The election comes at a time when Trump’s popularity is dwindling. His approval rating has dropped to 37 percent, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey, amid immigration enforcement chaos and an economy that is starting to show signs of stagnation.

Rehmet dedicated his win to working people. “We have to continue to have our energy. We have a lot more work to do,” he said after the results came out.

Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, also invoked working people in a statement celebrating Rehmet’s victory.

“It’s clear as day that this disastrous Republican agenda is hurting working families in Texas and across the country, which is why voters in red, blue, and purple districts are putting their faith in candidates like Taylor Rehmet,” Martin said.

“This overperformance is a warning sign to Republicans across the country.”

Wambsganss, the losing Republican candidate, also described the result as a “wake-up call” for her party – but she was referring to mobilising voters, not changing policy.

Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, an ally of Wambsganss, echoed that assessment. “Our voters cannot take anything for granted,” he wrote on X.

Democrats have been trying for years to make inroads in Texas. The state is the second largest in the US by population. Without its 40 Electoral College votes, it would be difficult for any Republican to win a presidential race.

US Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, one of the Texas Democrats trying to unseat Republican Senator John Cornyn in November, seized on Rehmet’s win to talk up her own chances.

“Don’t tell us what can’t be done in Texas. When we show up #TexasTough, we change the game,” she wrote in a social media post featuring photos of her and Rehmet.

In essence, the Texas State Senate result represents a red flag for Trump and the Republican Party. At the same time, this result aligns with historical trends where American voters favoured the opposition party in special elections.