China’s missed emissions target poses challenge to global climate efforts

China’s failure to meet a significant carbon emissions target has sparked concern about its ability to achieve carbon neutrality, which could be a factor in global efforts to halt the worst effects of climate change.

China’s carbon intensity, which measures carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), decreased by 3.4 percent in 2024, compared to Beijing’s official target of 3.9 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

China is also insufficient to meet the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) most recent five-year plan’s stated goal of reducing carbon intensity by 18% between 2020 and 2025.

President Xi Jinping has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and peak emissions by the end of the decade as part of China’s “dual targets.”

China’s development is closely watched around the world because of its paradoxical position as the world’s top polluter, which accounts for about 30% of global emissions, and as the world’s leader in investment in renewable energy.

The international community’s efforts to prevent average temperatures rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2. 7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, a benchmark set by the United Nations, will have a significant impact on whether the nation’s emissions targets are met or not.

After 2024, the first calendar year in history when temperatures exceeded the cap, there are already doubts about the planet’s ability to maintain temperatures below the 1.5C threshold over the long term.

According to Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at Ember, a global energy think tank based in the United Kingdom, carbon intensity is only one of the benchmarks Beijing uses to understand how decarbonization is affecting the country’s economy.

The reduction in emissions in relation to that growth wasn’t as rapid as expected, Muyi told Al Jazeera.

The second-largest economy in the world relied heavily on industrial growth to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, but Muyi claimed that this has also resulted in a recent rise in energy demand.

According to government data, China’s economy officially increased by 5% in 2024, but electricity demand increased by 6.8% year over year.

Carbon emissions increased by 0.8% from year to year.

Due to stumbling energy production at hydropower dams, record heatwaves have obstructed efforts to reduce emissions, making it impossible for authorities to replace the shortfall with coal.

Beijing has made remarkable advances in renewable energy despite the setbacks, according to Eric Fishman, a senior manager at the Hong Kong-based Lantau Group.

According to government data, China’s renewable energy demand was 14.4% of its total, and another 13.4% was fueled by hydropower.

According to Fishman, the nation also accounted for about 75% of its incremental growth in energy demand, or 500 out of 610 terawatt hours, thanks to renewable energy, according to an analysis of government data.

According to Fishman, the figure represents “massive amounts of clean energy,” roughly equivalent to Germany’s annual energy consumption.

Government support, including from the CCP’s highest levels, has contributed to a large portion of this growth.

According to the Chinese Constitution, Xi Jinping’s governing philosophy states that China must strive for an “ecological civilisation”.

Xi declared in 2021 that “high energy consumption and high-emission projects that don’t meet requirements should be resolutely eliminated.”

China also introduced its Emissions Trading Scheme, the largest carbon trading market in the world, in which businesses that produce less carbon than their designated allowance can sell their unused allowances to polluters who are over their captivity.

According to Anika Patel, a Carbon Brief analyst for China, Xi has called for China to focus on “new quality productive forces” and switch to more high-end, innovation-driven manufacturing in recent months.

China has historically been referred to as the “factory of the world,” with an emphasis on the so-called “old three,” which are all lower-quality goods like toys, clothing, and appliances. According to Patel, the “new three” are solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries, and they want to move forward with green growth.

Later this year, Patel said, the CCP will release its most recent round of carbon emissions targets for 2026 to 2030 along with its upcoming five-year plan, which will have an impact on both the public and private sectors.

While China is on track to reach peak carbon before 2030, it is less certain whether it can leave coal completely behind in the long run.

The energy sector and China’s economy as a whole will need many more structural changes, according to the report. And those adjustments must begin soon after peak, Yao told Al Jazeera.

Source: Aljazeera