Why is Russia bombing ships carrying Ukrainian grain?
Russia has accused Ukraine of starting a series of missile strikes on Ukrainian grain on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, threatening to end a period of relative calm that has helped to stabilise global food prices.
Russia has been accused of attacking grain-carrying vessels for the first time.
Which ships have been struck?
On Monday, a missile hit the Optima, a Palau-flagged vessel which had left the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa, killing one crew member and injuring five.
In as many days, a ship carrying grain exports was attacked again. On Sunday, the Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged Paresa was hit as it carried a cargo of 6, 000 tonnes of corn.
Russian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha claimed that Russia had used a “deliberate terrorist tactic” while Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Oleksiy Kuleba accused Moscow of trying to “destroy shipping in the Black Sea guaranteeing food security.
Ukraine had accused Russia of striking a civilian grain vessel for the first time in September prior to these two strikes. The Aya bulk carrier was attacked in Romanian-occupied Black Sea waters at that time.
The Aya, which was carrying grain to Egypt, had left the port of Chornomorsk, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was president of Ukraine. Sybiha, the foreign minister, said the strike was “a brazen attack on freedom of navigation and global food security”.
Commercial vessels had avoided significant harm before these ships’ missile strikes because Russian missiles were being fired at Ukraine’s port infrastructure.
Moscow has repeatedly denied attacking civilian targets, and the Russian Ministry of Defense has not made any comments regarding the grain ship strikes.
How have Ukraine’s grain exports been affected by the war with Russia?
Ukraine, a leading global grain exporter, has battled to keep food supplies flowing during the war with Russia.
Russia imposed a blockade of all of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports when it launched its invasion in February 2022. The following month, global food prices reached an all-time high, and consumers as far away as Lebanon, Somalia, and Egypt were affected by the effects.
Shipments were restarted in July 2022 as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a pact between Turkey and the United Nations that allowed for Ukrainian-produced commercial food and fertilizer, until Russia reneged in the agreement a year later.
Since then, Ukraine has been exporting grain using its own corridor, which passes through the territorial waters of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. Without Russia’s consent, Kyiv has been able to continue exporting large quantities of agricultural products to its pre-war markets in Asia and Africa.
According to data from Lloyd’s List, the near-300-year-old shipping journal based in London, the total capacity of all foreign grain vessels arriving in Ukraine during the first quarter of 2024 – including ports on the Black Sea and the Danube river – was 25.1 million tonnes deadweight, a 78 percent rise on the same period in 2023, when the Russia-backed corridor was in place.
But Pavlo Martyshev, an expert in food markets at the Kyiv School of Economics, said Russia has also heavy sway over world grain markets, in competition with Ukraine.
Russia exported more than 55.4 million tonnes of wheat during the marketing year 2023-2024, according to data, increasing supplies to several Asian nations.
“The recent attacks could affect Ukraine’s competitiveness”, making Russian exports more profitable and benefitting its war machine, Martyshev told Al Jazeera. Russia can purchase weapons for the war the more money it receives.
Russia strikes commercial grain ships, but why?
Exports are a crucial revenue source for Ukraine’s cash-strapped farmers.
According to figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, Ukraine exported about 6.5 million tonnes of grain each month before the Russian invasion in early 2022, making $ 27.8 billion in revenue for the year 2021. It was the world’s seventh-largest exporter of wheat and fourth-biggest exporter of barley, according to the Foreign Agriculture Service of the US Department of Agriculture.
In the middle of the war, just over a year after the war, grain exports had dropped to just over 2 million tonnes per month.
Farmers who “need cash to buy seeds for the next winter’s sowing season” are in doubt thanks to the recent ships’ recent strikes, Martyshev said. Because planting depends on their earnings right now, they are trying to maximize their own profits.
According to experts, the recent strikes will cause insurance premiums to rise and make it less appealing for foreign shippers to deal in Ukrainian grain in a critical time, in addition to lowering Ukrainian revenues.
According to Martyshev, “It makes it much harder psychologically for our traders and exporters to face infrastructure attacks,” which results in a bottleneck in our logistic supply chain.
The repeated attacks, according to Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior research scientist at CNA, a US-based security-focused think tank, indicate the “implicit bargain” that allowed Ukraine to operate its corridor without Russia’s approval may be about to end.
According to Gorenburg, who compiled the terms of the unspoken agreement, “Russia wasn’t targeting grain ships and Ukraine was largely staying away from Russian Navy ships in the eastern Black Sea.”
Ukraine might now resume drone strikes on Russian assets.
Gorenburg, whose research focuses on Russia’s leadership decision-making processes, said the reasoning behind Moscow’s targeting of grain-exporting ships was not yet clear.
Russia may be motivated by its recent victories in the Donbass or may be pursuing retaliation for the surprise attack by Ukraine in Kursk, he said.
It might be looking for fresh strategies to stifle Ukraine as well. “If you can weaken Ukraine economically, that reduces its ability to resist”, Gorenburg said.