Trump’s immigration crackdown explained | Start Here

How US President Donald Trump’s plan to deport millions is playing out.

United States President Donald Trump has promised the “largest deportation operation in American history”, targeting millions of undocumented immigrants. His tough stance on immigration helped to get him elected, but the way he is going about his immigration crackdown is causing alarm among many people and has led to violent protests in Los Angeles.

Start Here with Sandra Gathmann explains what is going on.

This episode features:

Nayna Gupta – Policy director, American Immigration Council

Kathleen Bush-Joseph – Policy analyst, Migration Policy Institute

David Cole – Professor in law and public policy, Georgetown University

Trump warns of 68% tax hike if budget bill fails. Not true, say experts

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US President Donald Trump has been sounding an alarm: if Congress doesn’t pass his tax and spending bill, Americans will be forced to pay much higher taxes.

Referring to his wide-ranging tax and spending legislation called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” Trump said in a June 5 Truth Social post, “If this bill doesn’t pass, there will be a 68% tax increase.”

Trump cited the same figure in May 25 comments to reporters and during a May 30 news conference.

However, independent analyses of the controversial bill – which would extend the 2017 tax cuts that are slated to expire later this year – found that Trump’s estimate is about 10 times bigger than the expected increase would be if the cuts expire.

The budget bill has caused a split between Trump and his close aide, Elon Musk, who called it a “disgusting abomination”.

The White House did not respond to an inquiry for this article.

How much would taxes be expected to increase?

Republicans have largely advocated for extending the full 2017 law. Democrats – including the party’s 2024 presidential nominee, then-Vice President Kamala Harris – have generally supported extending the lower tax rates only for families earning up to $400,000 a year.

If the 2017 tax bill sunsets, taxes would rise for most taxpayers. But the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank, has estimated, on average, Americans’ taxes would rise by about 7.5 percent if the 2017 tax cuts fully expired, not 68 percent.

The Tax Policy Center didn’t find any single income group, whether lower-income or higher-income, that would see a 68 percent tax hit if the law expired.

Taxpayers earning up to $34,600 could expect a nearly 12 percent increase, and taxpayers earning $67,000 and up could expect a 7 percent to 8 percent increase.

Taxes would rise for all income groups if the bill fails, but not by the 68 percent

The centre-right Tax Foundation hasn’t calculated an estimate, but the group made broadly similar projections as the Tax Policy Center, said Garrett Watson, the Tax Foundation’s director of policy analysis. Watson said the 68 percent figure is much higher than estimates he has seen from credible experts.

It’s possible that Trump’s 68 percent figure is a garbled reference to a separate statistic, tax experts said.

The Tax Policy Center estimated that just over 64 percent of taxpayers would see taxes increase if the law expires. That percentage varies based on the household income. Many low-income households would see no change, often because they don’t earn enough to pay federal income taxes. But for households making $67,000 or higher, there’s a roughly 80 percent likelihood of a tax increase.

About 62 percent of taxpayers will see a tax increase if the bill is not renewed

Similarly, the Tax Foundation said 62 percent of taxpayers would pay higher taxes if the 2017 law lapsed.

None of this, however, means that the increase for the typical taxpayer would be more than 60 percent compared with what they paid in taxes the previous year.

The Republican tax bill generally reduces taxes for lower and middle-income groups while benefitting wealthier taxpayers the most, the Tax Policy Center found.

Those earning $34,600 or less would see their after-tax incomes rise by 0.6 percent if the Republican bill passes, while those earning $67,000 or more would see a 2.8 percent increase. The boost would be even stronger for the top 5 percent of earners, the top 1 percent of earners and the top one-10th of 1 percent of earners.

Higher-income groups would gain more if the 2017 tax law is renewed

A Tax Foundation February analysis found higher gains among all income groups, especially when factoring in expected economic growth from the lower taxes. But the same pattern held – the biggest percentage gains from passing the Republican bill went to the top 5 percent and 1 percent of earners.

Our ruling

Trump said if his “Big Beautiful” tax and spending bill doesn’t pass, “there will be a 68 percent tax increase.”

If the 2017 tax law is not extended, independent analyses show that taxes will increase, but by far less than what Trump said.

The Tax Policy Center projects that the increase would be about 7.5 percent overall. The Tax Foundation broadly agreed with that assessment.

Why Liverpool, Barcelona are not playing in the FIFA Club World Cup 2025

“The FIFA Club World Cup will determine who is the best club in the world.”

This is the claim of FIFA President Gianni Infantino about the FIFA Club World Cup, which is about to be played across the United States for the next month. With the tournament expanded from seven to 32 clubs, it’s certainly bigger, but will it be better?

Football fans are asking: where are Liverpool, Barcelona and Napoli? The three champions of England, Spain and Italy aren’t competing.

The qualifying criteria were designed to reflect the strength of clubs over the past four years. But that has caused FIFA a credibility problem for a tournament it hopes can eclipse UEFA’s Champions League.

FIFA’s own criteria was diluted and compromised by the way a place was suddenly found for Inter Miami, one of three MLS (Major League Soccer) clubs that will be representing the host nation. MLS Champions Los Angeles Galaxy didn’t get a spot.

With superstar Lionel Messi having helped Inter Miami become a major global brand, they gained entry by finishing top of the regular-season standings in last year’s MLS. This wasn’t part of the qualification criteria until suddenly announced by FIFA, with Infantino congratulating them in person at the celebrations on the pitch in Miami.

Gianni Infantino, second right, joins Inter Miami co-owners David Beckham, left, Jorge Mas, second left, Jose Mas, right in front of the team’s Supporters’ Shield celebrations [Sam Navarro-Imagn Images/Reuters]

Messi’s team will play in the opening fixture against Egypt’s Al Ahly on Saturday night at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium, but the 37-year-old’s legendary status hasn’t quite worked its magic, with organisers already having to cut ticket prices to the match.

Indeed, FIFA expressed an appetite for 40-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo to join Messi at the tournament.

It was Infantino who first suggested the Portuguese forward could leave his Saudi Arabian club Al-Nassr, after they failed to qualify for the Club World Cup, making use of the special 10-day (June 1 -10) created by FIFA for players to be signed by teams in the brand new CWC.

But Ronaldo has been busy elsewhere, scoring to help Portugal to win the UEFA Nations League on Sunday against closest rivals Spain, proving Infantino was right to realise he is still “box office”. Whether FIFA presidents should be starting transfer speculation is another matter. Ronaldo turned down approaches to play.

 Nations League - Final - Portugal v Spain - Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany - June 8, 2025 Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo lifts the trophy as he celebrates with teammates after winning the Nations League
Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo lifts the trophy as he celebrates with teammates after winning the Nations League [Kai Pfaffenbach/Reuters]

Where are Barcelona, Liverpool and Napoli?

Another player who won’t be playing in the CWC is the rising star of world football, Lamine Yamal (who turns 18 on July 13, the day of the final in New Jersey).

Yamal’s club? Barcelona, of course. Meaning, the young genius generating millions of clicks and clips around the globe will play no part in something FIFA wants and needs football fans to embrace.

Sources at the Spanish club tell me that missing out on the money available for the tournament has hurt Barcelona’s board of directors. A $1bn TV rights deal with sports streaming platform DAZN was finalised six months before the tournament, undeniably welcome for the participating clubs, particularly the winners who’ll receive up to $125m.

But after a tiring season, the coach and players are more philosophical. Players’ union FIFPRO reacted with dismay to the major expansion of the tournament and its shift to June/July, going as far as to threaten legal action, and calling FIFA “inherently abusive” for adding so many games.

At Liverpool, who won the English Premier League by 10 points, failing to qualify for the tournament has been met with a shrug of the shoulders. The club’s Dutch manager Arne Slot feels his team, who won the Premier League in his first season in charge, didn’t need another challenge and more games.

“I don’t think it’s healthy for players to only have maybe one week off, then go into the tournament, then have one week off and start the whole Premier League season again. That can never be good for the health of a player,” said Slot.

“Maybe when the tournament has been played or done well, we’ll all feel we would love to have been there, because what a great occasion. I think most people in football have the same opinion: ‘Pfft, another tournament.’”

Serie A - Napoli v Cagliari - Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Italy - May 24, 2025 Napoli's Giovanni Di Lorenzo lifts the trophy as he celebrates winning Serie A with teammates
Italian champions Napoli are missing from the tournament along with the English and Spanish champions [Remo Casilli/Reuters]

The four-year qualifying criteria may have been designed for fairness, but it also means no Napoli, whose Serie A triumph was warmly received by fans across the globe, some of whom retain a soft spot from Maradona’s famous era in the city. The Italian club’s absence is unfortunate for the hosts and organisers.

FIFA can point to 12 European teams in the 32-club lineup, reflecting the dominance of the continent in club football. And the lineup does include Real Madrid (who’ve won six of the last 12 Champions Leagues); Bayern Munich, and English duo Chelsea and Manchester City, who both returned to late-season form.

Paris Saint-Germain may hold the key to the tournament’s credibility. The French champions deservedly won the Champions League for the first time with irresistible form and flair in the knockout stages, before beating Inter Milan 5-0 in the final in Munich.

Many will already have decided they are currently the best team in the world – European teams have won the last 11 Club World Cups in the shorter format. They will be tested, though, with Brazilian champions Botafogo, Atletico Madrid and CONCACAF champions Seattle Sounders in their group. If PSG slip up, it could indicate the tournament is more difficult than its critics suggest.

Paris St Germain arrive in Los Angeles ahead of Club World Cup - Los Angeles, California, U.S. - June 10, 2025 Paris St Germain players arrive in Los Angeles ahead of the Club World Cup
Paris Saint-Germain players arrived in Los Angeles ahead of the Club World Cup on a branded Champions League winners flight [Daniel Cole/Reuters]

Can FIFA convince the fans at the CWC?

FIFA is accustomed to criticism, but with the Club World Cup, it is also dealing with something potentially more damaging: apathy.

As well as the slow ticket sales, there are no guarantees DAZN will get the viewing figures it would like for its billion-dollar investment. And the tournament will provide a litmus test of the current interest in football from the American public, a year before co-hosting the 48-team World Cup with Mexico and Canada.

Ultimately, football fans notice what happens on the field more than off it. The political aspect of this tournament is not talked about it, but don’t underestimate its significance.

FIFA’s global vision wasn’t expanded only because the governing body wanted to “prove the world’s best team”. It’s largely about the relationship between the FIFA president and UEFA, his former employers.

The Champions League is regarded as the best knockout club competition in world football, with unchallenged kudos, huge broadcasting deals and an unmatched quality of football.

Tensions between FIFA and UEFA recently surfaced when Infantino arrived late to the FIFA Congress in Paraguay, straight from meetings in the Middle East during US President Donald Trump’s state visit. UEFA’s delegates walked out mid-meeting over what they called a “deeply regrettable” delay.

U.S. President Donald Trump writes on a soccer ball as he attends an event with Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and FIFA President Gianni Infantino, at Lusail Palace in Lusail, Qatar, May 14, 2025.
US President Donald Trump, centre, writes on a football as he attends an event with Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, right, and Infantino, left, at Lusail Palace in Lusail, Qatar, in May [Brian Snyder/Reuters]

Infantino desperately wants the Club World Cup to succeed, and even has his name engraved on the trophy. So, how does that happen? No embarrassing empty seats and higher ticket sales would help. Then FIFA hopes the public gets caught up in the action, with four matches per day covering time zones, and not much competition from other men’s football.

The operative word, though, is form. The current NBA basketball finals serve as an example of how quickly things change in just a year. Last year’s finalists were the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks. Both crashed out of contention this year, losing their best players (to injury and via a controversial trade respectively). FIFA’s four-year qualification period needs refining.

Whatever happens in the next month, expect there to be changes in qualification criteria before the 2029 Club World Cup, whether it is tweaks or something more drastic.

At least three killed in fire at Iran chemical plant

At least three people have been killed and two others admitted to hospital after a welding accident led to an explosion and fire at a chemical factory in Iran, officials say.

The accident occurred shortly after 11am local time (07:30 GMT) on Wednesday in a methanol storage unit at the Kaveh Petrochemical Company in Bandar Deyr, a city in the southern Bushehr province, Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported.

A fire broke out after welding on a barge at the site ignited an explosion, Kourosh Dehghani, the provincial head of the crisis management organisation, told Iranian state television.

He said firefighters had contained the blaze and were now working to cool the site. No further casualties were expected, he added.

Footage from the blaze carried on state media showed large clouds of thick black smoke rising from the site, as firefighting units trained their hoses on the fire.

The chemical plant, situated on a 200-hectare (494-acre) site in the Gulf region, is a key producer of methanol, making up to 2.3 million tonnes of the highly flammable chemical each year, according to its website.