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EDITOR’S ANALYSIS

United States President Donald Trump enjoys being seen as unpredictable. But when it comes to the military campaign against Iran, his shifting messaging on the length and aims of the conflict obscures the failure to achieve his apparent goal: a quick conclusion that he can declare a victory.

Despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday – the kind of brazen act that has become a Trump trademark – and the heavy bombing of Iran, the Islamic Republic’s leaders have publicly rejected the prospect of any immediate return to the negotiating table.

Instead, Iran is testing the will of its Gulf Arab neighbours with repeated attacks not just on US assets, but on civilian areas, and a threat to strike any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranians’ message is clear: that they have the ability to fight back, and believe that they must impose some kind of deterrence before any talks to stop the fighting, whenever that may be.

And so, with an Iranian state prepared for a protracted fight, Trump is in the kind of scenario he has typically avoided in his two terms as president. That perhaps explains why he has been so inconsistent in his messaging.

Trump has said that the war could end in a few days, but has also given a timeline of up to five weeks, or even longer. He has framed the fight as one for the freedom of the Iranian people and in support of the country’s opposition, but also made clear that he is happy to make a deal with elements of the current state if they are willing to abide by his conditions.

The contradictions shroud the reality that Trump does not have the stomach for a lengthy fight. In his periods in power, Trump has been happy to use the US’s military strength to attack opponents, and even threaten allies. But he has largely done so when he has been able to secure a quick and easy win, or backed down if it became clear that was not possible.

A military campaign against Yemen’s Houthis last year was evidence of that. When it became clear that fully degrading the Houthis’ offensive capabilities would take months, Trump agreed to a deal in which the Houthis agreed to stop attacks on US ships, even as the Yemeni group continued to attack Israeli interests.

An elongated conflict with Iran promises the opposite of a quick win – more US casualties, global economic damage, and a failure to protect regional allies. All for a fight that Trump has spent little time attempting to convince the US people to back, and which is already unpopular.

Iran down, but not out

The Iranian government is weak after years of economic troubles partly brought on by Western sanctions, and protests in January, when thousands were killed. But air power alone was always unlikely to topple a system that has embedded itself throughout Iran for decades.

Instead, Trump says he prefers a Venezuela scenario, with the killing of Khamenei equating to the US’s January abduction of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, and other establishment figures stepping in more to the liking of the US.

For now, the Iranian government is not interested. It believes that if it starts negotiating now and makes a deal without establishing deterrence, Israel and the US will find a new reason to attack in the foreseeable future, effectively taking the “mowing the lawn” strategy used against the Palestinians to Iran, in which threats are intermittently attacked to prevent them from getting stronger.

There is a good reason for that Iranian fear – Trump himself has spoken about it. “I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians: ‘See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding [your nuclear and missile programmes]’,” he told the news website Axios on Saturday.

All of this ambiguity gives Trump the freedom to pivot and make an about-turn on the war if he wants. The US president will be more than willing to sell the killing of Khamenei and the images of devastation in Tehran and elsewhere as a victory if he decides the costs are too high.

The father of a school shooter in the United States has been convicted of second-degree murder and involuntary manslaughter for his son’s attack on Apalachee High School in Winder, Georgia, on September 4, 2024.

A jury in the southern state returned the verdict on Tuesday after less than two hours of deliberation.

The father, Colin Gray, was found guilty on all charges. His son, Colt Gray, was 14 years old when he opened fire in the high school he attended, killing two students and two teachers and injuring seven others.

Colin Gray’s case is the latest instance of a parent facing prison time for alleged negligence in the lead-up to a school shooting.

His conviction follows a pair of guilty verdicts in 2024 for the parents of another school shooter, Jennifer and James Crumbley, who were charged with involuntary manslaughter.

Prosecutors in the Georgia case accused Gray of enabling his son’s attack on the high school by providing access to a gun and ammunition.

Among the charges against Gray were two counts of second-degree murder for the killings of students Mason Schermerhorn and Christian Angulo, both 14.

Georgia law allows for second-degree murder charges in cases where alleged cruelty to children causes the death of a child.

In addition, Gray was convicted on two counts of involuntary manslaughter for the killings of the two teachers, Richard Aspinwall, 39, and Cristina Irimie, 53. He was also found guilty of reckless conduct.

Gray will face up to life in prison. His sentence is expected to be set at a later date.

His defence team, however, argued that Gray should not be held accountable for the actions of his teenage son, and that his son alone made the decision to carry out the school shooting.

His lawyers also described Gray as a struggling single dad, caring for three children.

Gray himself testified that, until the shooting took place, he did not believe his son capable of carrying out such violence.

“I could have done better,” he told the court when asked about his son’s mental health.

But the father denied seeing warning signs in advance of the shooting, and he explained that he had told his son that the gun was solely for outings to the shooting range or hunting.

Gray had pleaded not guilty before Tuesday’s conviction.

But prosecutors argued Gray ignored red flags before the attack, including his son’s increasing fascination with past school shootings.

They maintained that, as a father, Gray had a responsibility to keep guns out of his son’s hands and prevent harm from occurring, particularly as his son faced mental health challenges.

“We talk a lot about rights in our country,” Barrow County District Attorney Brad Smith said following the verdict.

“But God gave us a duty to protect our children, and I hope that we remember that, as parents, as community members, to protect our children because that is our God-given duty.”

Colt Gray’s mother, Marcee Gray also testified in court that she had urged Colin Gray to take away the teenager’s guns in the lead-up to the shooting.

She and Colin Gray had been separated at the time, and she was not charged in relation to the attack.

Gray reportedly gave his son a semiautomatic AR-15-style rifle for Christmas. Shortly before Colt Gray opened fire at Apalachee High School, the 14-year-old texted his father, “I’m sorry, it’s not ur fault.” He also texted his mother an apology.