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Washington, DC – Tom Malinowski, a moderate Democrat, has conceded defeat to progressive Analilia Mejia in a crowded primary race in New Jersey for the United States House of Representatives.

But the race is being called a loss not just for Malinowski but also for the influential pro-Israel organisation that opposed him: the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

In recent years, Malinowski, a former Congress member, has offered only mild criticism of Washington’s unconditional support for Israel, suggesting conditions could be placed on US aid.

That, however, was enough to trigger an onslaught of targeted attack advertisements from the United Democracy Project (UDP), a super PAC linked to AIPAC.

Critics say the campaign against Malinowski is a sign of AIPAC’s zero-tolerance strategy towards any criticism of Israel, despite the risk of blowback from a Democratic electorate increasingly wary of Israel’s actions.

In this case, UDP’s spending appeared to help Mejia, the most critical candidate in the race of US-Israel policy.

Malinowski’s concession on Tuesday comes five days after the February 5 Democratic primary, as officials finish tallying outstanding votes.

As of Tuesday, Mejia, a former campaign official for progressive Senator Bernie Sanders, leads by about 900 votes.

Tahesha Way, a former lieutenant governor of New Jersey, came in a distant third, despite having been embraced by conservative Israeli media in the final stretch of the race.

Malinowski, too, had previously enjoyed AIPAC’s support and describes himself as “pro-Israel”. He formerly served as a congressmemeber representing a different New Jersey district from 2019 to 2023.

In his statement conceding defeat, Malinowski applauded Mejia, saying she deserves “unequivocal praise and credit for running a positive campaign and for inspiring so many voters on election day”.

But he nevertheless acknowledged the role AIPAC played in the results.

“The outcome of this race cannot be understood without also taking into account the massive flood of dark money that AIPAC spent on dishonest ads during the last three weeks,” Malinowski wrote.

“The threat unlimited dark money poses to our democracy is far more significant than the views of a single member of Congress on Middle East policy.”

An ineffective strategy?

With Mejia’s victory, many observers see AIPAC’s newest approach backfiring.

Malinowski has long been a supporter of US funding for Israel. But he has suggested that Washington should not provide a “blank cheque” to the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Mejia, in contrast, was the only candidate in the race to refer to Israel’s war in Gaza as a genocide.

She will face two Republicans in a special election in April, competing for a district that swung heavily Democratic in the 2024 vote.

While the Democratic Party’s progressive branch has long criticised AIPAC’s tactics, the campaign against Malinowski has brought criticism from what is considered its more “moderate” flank.

The advertisements bought by UDP did not specifically reference Malinowski’s support for Israel.

Instead, they attacked the former Congress member over domestic issues, including a 2019 vote in support of funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Representative Brad Schneider, the leader of the centrist caucus New Democrat Coalition, told the publication Politico that AIPAC’s strategy “raised eyebrows”.

He questioned the group for “spending against a candidate that would’ve been a New Dem and instead electing a far-left candidate”.

“Come on, guys, this is not what we were hoping for here,” said Schneider, who himself has enjoyed AIPAC support.

Mark Pocan, a Democratic Congressman and longtime AIPAC critic, meanwhile called the strategy a “monumental failure”.

He said the spending showed that Democratic voters were becoming increasingly averse not just to AIPAC but to groups associated with it, like the UDP, as outrage over Israel’s genocide in Gaza continues to grow.

“Their money is so toxic that the very people they are trying to help are now hurt by their involvement, no matter how well disguised,” Pocan wrote on social media.

For its part, AIPAC sent a letter to supporters last week, downplaying the situation. It noted that, because Mejia is running in a special election, even if she wins in April, her term will only run through January of next year. She will face another Democratic primary in June before the general election.

It pledged to get involved in that race as well.

“While this is not the outcome we hoped for, her prospective win was an anticipated possibility,” AIPAC said in its email.

“Our ultimate focus for this race remains the June primary that will likely determine who represents this district for the full term beginning in January 2027.”

As portions shrink and prices rise, shoppers feel the hidden cost of shrinkflation.

As Donald Trump continues to unleash havoc on allies and trading partners, countries are scrambling to forge new alliances and mend broken ones as they try to shield themselves from a mercurial American president.

The past few months have seen a flurry of diplomatic moves by governments seeking to lessen their reliance on the United States, including among countries that had long nursed grudges against one another.

“Countries are trying to diversify economic and security partnerships,” Vina Nadjibulla, vice president at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, told Al Jazeera.

“Many US allies, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, won’t decouple from the US – the US is too important, especially for security – but they are all looking for a US-plus strategy to minimise risk,” Nadjibulla said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to travel to Australia after the Munich Security Conference this weekend to push through a trade and security deal that has been in the works since 2018.

The trip comes on the heels of security and trade agreements that the European Union has lined up with the United Kingdom, Canada and, most recently, India, and weeks after the bloc signed a trade pact with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

“It is difficult to overstate the disruption Donald Trump has inflicted on the global trading system,” Robert Rogowsky, adjunct professor of trade and economic diplomacy at Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera.

But Trump has also underestimated the world’s middle powers, said Rogowsky, referring to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, for smaller countries to unite and show “genuine cooperation” as leading powers turn inwards.

“That resolve is rooted in a simple reality. For many countries, economic stability is a matter of national survival. Faced with repeated shocks from Washington, they can’t remain dependent on an increasingly erratic trading partner,” Rogowsky said.

Last month, Carney became the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade, seeking to reset ties that had been frozen since Canadian authorities arrested a top official of Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei in December 2018.

During Carney’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the two leaders agreed to slash tariffs on certain goods and allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into Canada with minimal tariffs.

Last week, Canadian Industry Minister Melanie Joly said her government was working with China to launch a joint EV assembly facility in Canada to export to the world.

The move marks a significant departure from Canada’s previous efforts to restrict China’s EV industry, including a 100 percent tariff on imports introduced after a similar move by the US.

Canada is also trying to rebuild ties with India, another key trading partner, after years of tensions over the killing of a Canadian Sikh activist, with Carney expected to visit New Delhi in the next few months.

‘Reconfiguration of trade’

“The reconfiguration of global trade is under way,” Rogowsky said.

Although remaking supply chains and trade relationships that evolved in the aftermath of World War II will be neither quick nor easy, particularly when they involve the world’s largest economy, “the pace of change is accelerating”, he added.

While two-way trade between the US and 19 of its trade partners grew slightly last year, total global trade grew much faster, according to Gary Hufbauer, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics.

In dollar terms, US trade with its partners grew 3.6 percent, compared with a 6.3 percent increase in global trade, he said.

One reason for the marginal change in US trade, despite Trump’s tariffs and threats, is that many countries ramped up their exports in anticipation of new taxes. Deeply embedded supply chains also take time to change.

“There is no doubt Trump has shaken the world trade order. Most importantly, trading rules once agreed in the WTO, or FTAs, no longer bind the US,” Hufbauer told Al Jazeera.

“From a diplomatic standpoint, trust in the US has dropped to a post-Second World War low. Carney is right to describe the current geopolitical context as a ‘rupture’ from the past 80 years.”

Hufbauer said he expected to see further trade diversion away from US trade this year.

“There is a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, and countries are proactively looking to hedge,” Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Al Jazeera.