Are Ethiopia and Eritrea hurtling towards war?

Just seven years after the two neighbors’ ties are restored, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are once more escalating over Addis Ababa’s desire for maritime access.

Eritrea has, in recent months, called for young people to sign up for the army, while Ethiopia has reportedly deployed troops to joint border areas. According to analysts, those actions could lead to a conflict between the two armies.

In a recent statement on X, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ruled out a conflict with Eritrea to enter the Red Sea. Abiy, who has previously said gaining access to the Red Sea was “an existential issue”, stressed that his country wanted to achieve it “peacefully via dialogue”.

Ethiopia has been called “misguided” by Eritrea because of border tensions, but it has also struck a harsher tone.

What is known about the two countries’ historically conflicted relationship, as well as why tensions are rising once more:

What indicators indicate that Ethiopia and Eritrea are at odds with one another?

In recent months, hostilities have increased.

Last September, Ethiopian Airlines, the country’s national carrier, was forced to suspend flights to Eritrea after it received a ban notice from Asmara and its bank accounts there were frozen. No justifications were given for the ban, according to airline officials.

The Eritrean government was calling up reservists and issuing military mobilization directives to citizens under the age of 60, according to an Eritrean rights organization called Human Rights Concern Eritrea (HRCE) in February. The group said the announcements represented forced conscription policies in the authoritarian-led country.

According to HRCE, “This sudden and unprecedented mobilization has shocked Eritrean society, as it is assumed that the conflict could be with neighboring Ethiopia.”

We urge the governments of Eritrea and Ethiopia to halt these actions, respect the rights of their citizens, and put an end to any war-related escalation, and call on the United Nations, the African Union, and all concerned governments to intervene.

Similarly, according to reporting by the Reuters news agency, Ethiopia deployed troops and tanks on its northern borders with Eritrea early in March. No justifications were provided for the troop increase there.

Conflict in Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray has also signalled escalating hostilities between the neighbouring countries. The government there splinters due to political unrest in Tigray, which borders Eritrea, according to one alleged ally with Eritrea.

A civil war erupted in the semi-autonomous Tigray region, which lasted from 2020 to 2022 and caused a humanitarian crisis that resulted in the deaths of about three million people internally and displaced people. It was a result of the Ethiopian government’s attempts to put down a rebellion by the Tigrayan governing party – the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF claimed that Addis Ababa wanted to rule the nation’s federal politics while TPLF members believed that the central government had a lot of power.

During the Tigray War, Ethiopian forces and Eritrean forces exchanged brutal human rights violations on both sides. However, when a peace deal – the Pretoria Peace Agreement – was signed in November 2022 between the Ethiopian federal government and the rebel regional government, Eritrea was not invited to the negotiations. Some analysts think Eritrea’s officials felt let down, and that this caused a rift between the two governments.

Why has the TPLF broken into factions?

After the war split into two factions this year, the fragile peace achieved in Tigray has since broken out as a temporary TPLF administration has been installed.

A dissident faction accuses the interim TPLF government, led by Getachew Reda, of “selling out” Tigrayan interests in its alliance with the federal authorities and of breaking the peace deal agreements. In the latest offensives last week, the breakaway faction, under TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, seized the major Tigrayan towns of Adigrat and Adi-Gudem amid reports of civilian displacements and injuries. Additionally, according to reports, the group reportedly seized the regional capital of Mekelle’s main radio station.

The separatist group is also accused of working with Eritrea, despite the country’s government’s assertions that it has had ties to dissident TPLF members.

In a statement on Wednesday, the interim TPLF administration sought help from the federal government in Addis Ababa, saying “the region may be on the brink of another crisis”.

General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a vice president in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, shared those ideas in a recent article in the Africa Report, an article about Africa.

He remarked that “war could start between Ethiopia and Eritrea at any time.”

Why are relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia historically fragile?

Up until 1951, when it fell under British rule and became an independent nation, Eritrea was an Italian colony. Ethiopia attempted to annex Eritrea in 1962, but rebel forces led by its leader Isaias Afwerki fought back in an armed conflict to win the country’s independence in 1993.

In 1998, clashes broke out over disputed border territories, resulting in a two-year war. As a result of the conflict, there were no fewer than 80 000 fatalities, and families were split across borders as all interstate communications, including transportation, phone, and postal networks, were cut. A UN-backed peace agreement in 2000 granted Eritrea the disputed territories, but it never came into force.

When Abiy became prime minister in 2018, he immediately moved to end the tensions and normalise diplomatic relations with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who has ruled since 1993.

After decades of conflict, Abiy had promised to destroy the wall and, with love, build a bridge between the two nations.

Soon, many families reunited and communication was reestablished. Flights also commenced between the capital cities of Addis Ababa and Asmara.

However, according to analysts, Eritrea was upset to be excluded from the peace negotiations after its involvement in the Tigray War. Despite the fact that the war is over, Eritrea and the TPLF main faction continue to be fiercely antagonistic. According to some reports, Eritrean forces have not completely retreated from parts of Tigray. There is speculation that both countries could turn Tigray into a proxy battlefield.

The tensions have also been exacerbated by Abiy’s desire to grant landlocked Ethiopia direct sea access. After Eritrea’s independence, Addis Ababa was denied access to the port. Since then, the Red Sea port of Djibouti has been the main trade conduit for Ethiopia, but it is costly – about $1bn annually.

Ethiopia has a right to sea access, according to Abiy, which Asmara officials interpret as a declaration of territorial conflict with Eritrea, which is located in the Red Sea and seized all of Ethiopia’s sea access upon independence. According to some, Abiy is considering visiting Assab, one of Eritrea’s two ports.

Foreign Minister Osman Saleh gave a briefing this morning, at the Foreign Ministry HQ in Asmara, to Resident Ambassadors/Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Heads of UN Agencies accredited to the country, on false accusations regarding: i) Eritrea’s presumptive preparations for…

Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh criticized Ethiopia for its rhetoric in a press conference last week, and he denied that the country was preparing for war.

“Eritrea is perplexed by Ethiopia’s misguided and outdated ambitions for maritime access and naval base through diplomacy or military force”, Saleh said. Eritrea urges the international community and its relevant organizations to press Ethiopia to uphold its neighbor’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in this regard.

With those declarations, Ethiopia has also irritated Somalia, its eastern neighbor. After Ethiopia signed a port deal with autonomous, coastal Somaliland, Somalia, which sees Somaliland as one of its regions, cut off diplomatic ties with Addis Ababa.

Last October, Eritrea and Somalia and Egypt signed a security agreement in what appeared to be retaliation and, perhaps, taking sides. Egypt and Ethiopia have also had disagreements over access to the Nile River.

What next?

Residents of Tigray are in line at banks to withdraw money amid fears of a new conflict, with some hoping to leave the area for Addis Ababa or neighboring nations, according to a report from the Guardian newspaper in the UK. Government forces regularly check ID and conduct extensive patrols.

Abiy, in a post on X, sought to allay fears. He promised to seek a peaceful dialogue with Eritrea to resolve the conflict rather than a conflict.

Ethiopia and Eritrea do not intend to conflict over the issue of access to the sea. Our desire is to engage in dialogue and discussion on this matter instead. Ethiopia’s only concern is that it can access the Red Sea. What we… image twitter.com/QOdbJGxHYe

According to a post from his office on X, “Ethiopia does not have any intention of engaging in conflict with Eritrea in order to gain access to the sea,” Abiy said on Thursday.

Eritrea has not responded to Abiy’s statement. Prior to this, Ethiopia’s foreign minister, Osman Saleh, denied reports of Eritrean troops stationed on the ground in Ethiopia.

As Asmara appears to be continuing to compete with stronger rivals of Ethiopia, Saleh met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo this week to discuss “the security of the Red Sea.”

Source: Aljazeera