After the bloodshed: Can Bangladesh’s Awami League resurrect itself?

Dhaka, Bangladesh — On the afternoon of July 16, 2024, as Abu Sayeed, a student leader at the forefront of protests against then-Prime Minister Sheikh Haisna’s leadership, was shot dead by police in Rangpur – a northern district – a strikingly different scene was unfolding in the capital, Dhaka.

At the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Abdur Rahman, a senior leader of Hasina’s Awami League and a minister in her government, sat unperturbed in his office enjoying a poetry recital by a local poet.

Abdur Rahman sits down in his chair, resting his fist against his right cheek, and passively listens in a video from the day. Towards the end, he offered a lighthearted response: “Wonderful”.

Moments later, when informed by an aide of the escalating unrest following Sayeed’s killing, he dismissed the concerns, saying, “Oh, nothing will happen. The leader]Hasina] will handle everything”.

The Awami League’s disconnect from grassroots realities amid nationwide tumult has since come to symbolize, for many in the country, the tension that is exploding into deadly violence on Bangladesh’s streets and the minister’s seemingly casual demeanor.

Less than three weeks later, the Hasina government, accused of authoritarianism and brutality, was toppled by a student-led uprising. Law enforcement officers’ attacks on protesters and bystanders resulted in at least 834 fatalities. The protests&nbsp, began on July 1 and ended on August 5 with Hasina fleeing to India. More than 20, 000 others were injured, including women and children.

The upheaval brought down the curtains on Hasina’s 16-year leadership. Her party, which has been a major force in Bangladeshi politics since the country’s birth, is still struggling to recover after five months. Unapologetic party honchos and mid-level leaders and activists who think the Awami League needs to reflect on what went wrong and how the 75-year-old political party addresses that gap may shape its future are at a sharp snag.

A party divided

Many Awami League leaders continue to deflect responsibility.

“We are victims of an international conspiracy, this will be proven soon”, the party’s joint-secretary, AFM Bahauddin Nasim, told Al Jazeera over the phone from an undisclosed location on January 16. He did not specify whom he was accusing.

According to analysts, these assertions highlight the leadership’s inability to address public grievances and its denial of its failures.

Many of the party’s grassroots members are now hiding or frightened of legal repercussions from the killings, which leads to alienation. They lament the party’s transition from a grassroots organization to a bottom-up structure that lost touch with public sentiments.

On August 5, 2024, as huge crowds marched towards Hasina’s official residence, the then-prime minister joined her sister Sheikh Rehana in fleeing Ganabhaban (the prime minister’s residence) on board a military helicopter.

“I was still with some activists on the streets of Khulna while the dramatic escape was being broadcast on television. I tried calling our senior leader, the local lawmaker, but his phone was switched off”, a senior local leader of the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), the Awami League’s student wing, in the southwestern city of Khulna, told Al Jazeera, requesting anonymity.

“At that moment, I felt cheated”.

The interim administration, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, imposed a ban on the BCL on October 23, 2024. The once-inspirational BCL leader from Khulna described his terrifying journey to safety. Before relocating to Dhaka under a false name, he fled to the nearby Gopalganj.

“I’ve changed my Facebook account, phone number, and everything. I’ve started a small business to survive. We were abandoned by the party. I’ll never return to politics”, he said.

Local activists all over the country experienced similar abandonment feelings.

While many members remain silent, Samiul Bashir, an assistant secretary of the Bangladesh Krishak League, a pro-Awami League organisation, has been vocal on social media platforms.

Committed activists have been hampered for years. Since 2014, opportunists and family members of local lawmakers have dominated party structures at the grassroots, leading to the catastrophe”, he told Al Jazeera.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a leader of a pro-Awami League doctors ‘ association echoed similar frustrations. “The party’s leaders’ actions and words have been disastrous, particularly over the past few years,” said one critic.

Reflecting on the party’s failures, he told Al Jazeera: “It was a harsh reality that our party became heavily reliant on intelligence reports to make decisions. Many of the world’s top leaders were oblivious to the making of decisions or who was involved.

According to analysts, the party also became disorganized as a result of the party’s lack of democratic practices. For instance, all grassroots organizations affiliated with the Awami League and its affiliates in the Dhaka metropolitan area have been operating with outdated committees that have relied on the same old members without making any changes over the past ten years.

No remorse

The Awami League has yet to issue a formal apology or statement acknowledging its government’s heavy-handed actions during the student-led uprising, known as the “July movement”.

Instead, the party repeatedly dismissed the movement, with statements – such as a January 10 press release from its youth wing, the Jubo League – describing it as a “terrorist uprising”, allegedly orchestrated by forces aiming to push the country towards a “Pakistani ideology”.

During the nearly one-hour conversation with Al Jazeera, Nasim also repeatedly accused Islami Chhatra Shibir, the student wing of the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) party, of “misleading” students under the guise of the anti-quota movement. As a student protest against the reinstatement of a discriminatory quota system in public jobs, Bangladesh’s anti-quota movement in 2024 began. Escalating due to government repression and widespread bloodshed, it evolved into a broader uprising against Hasina’s government.

Since launching its opposition to Pakistan’s independence in 1971, the Jamaat has long been at odds with Bangladeshi politics.

Five top Jamaat leaders and a senior Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) figurehead were executed for war crimes while the Awami League was in place. Under the Hasina government, there were numerous repressive measures against the BNP and Jamaat, including widespread arbitrary disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

Nasim acknowledged to Al Jazeera that his party had “strategic missteps,” but he cited “intelligence lapses” as the main causes of its failures.

However, Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal, a close aide of Hasina and home minister for 11 years until the removal of the government, claimed in a recent interview with the Indian Express, a major Indian newspaper, that the Awami League had been the victim of a “joint coup” carried out by “Islamic terrorists and the army”.

Others close to the party disagree.

Tanjim Ahmad Sohel Taj, the former state minister for home affairs and the son of Bangladesh’s first prime minister, lamented the party’s lack of accountability.

“The Awami League must apologise to the people of Bangladesh for the injustices, oppression, corruption, plundering and laundering of billions. I have yet to see any self-realisation, self-criticism, or admission of guilt”, he said in a television interview.

Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, an analyst and professor of political science at Jahangirnagar University in Dhaka, &nbsp, argued that the party’s hardline stances and decisions fuelled public outrage, paving the way for the uprising’s success.

“Fanatical measures ultimately hurt Sheikh Hasina’s popularity, turning her resignation into a singular demand”, he told Al Jazeera.

Resurrection – an uphill battle

Hasina is not unfamiliar with exile – or with comebacks.

After the assassination of independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and most of his family on August 15, 1975, Hasina, his daughter, stayed in India for several years.

However, in 1981, she headed back to Bangladesh and took the Awami League as leader. The party’s rebuilding and regaining control took 21 years.

“This time, however, is different, the party fell to a bloody student-led uprising supported by the military, and Sheikh Hasina’s image as a leader is severely tarnished”, Hasanuzzman said.

He claimed that the Awami League is in a difficult position due to its leadership and image. “Without Sheikh Hasina, rebuilding the party will be challenging, and internal divisions are likely”, he said.

The BNP and the Jamaat, the two other major political parties in the country, have both stated that they want Awami League leaders and activists to be brought to justice for the killings of citizens in July and August. Ultimately, however, they have argued that the fate of the Awami League would be decided by the country’s people.

However, the student movement that spearheaded the Hasina removal campaign has a much more steadfast view of the Awami League’s future.

The Awami League would not be able to take part in the upcoming elections, which Yunus has claimed will take place by the start of 2026, according to Mahfuz Alam, an adviser to the interim Yunus government and a key figure in the student movement at a January 25 rally.

“Our main priorities include prosecuting those responsible for murders, disappearances, and rapes, implementing reforms, and ensuring fair elections with the participation of all pro-Bangladesh political parties,” he said.

From the Awami League’s perspective, the elections could prove crucial. “If AL]Awami League] can participate in the election, it will create a foothold for the party to return”, Hasanuzzaman said.

“Yet, political revival is very difficult for]the] Awami League without rebuilding public trust through leadership, organisation and grassroots connection”, he added.

The Awami League would need to fulfill four requirements, according to Ali Riaz, a political analyst and professor at Illinois State University, in order for it to have a chance of surviving. These include a clear apology for crimes committed during its 16 years in power, particularly during the uprising of 2024, ensuring that no member of Hasina’s family leads the party once more, and facing charges for heinous crimes, including crimes against humanity.

“Processes must be brought against those directly accountable for the atrocities committed during the July uprising, including Sheikh Hasina.” According to Riaz, any discussion of their return can only occur if these conditions are met. Additionally, Rioz serves as vice chairman of a government commission under the leadership of the Yunus that is tasked with achieving consensus on a number of reforms.

Many Awami League activists still believe in Hasina, despite their occasional criticism of her family’s private misuse of power.

Senior leaders from other countries are urging them to regroup and make the Yunus-led government look “going to fail” through social media and talk shows.

But that’s a hard sell to party activists. These junior Awami League leaders are responding to those assertions in the comments section below, pointing out that it is simple for exiled leaders to speak from a foreign land when activists are dispersed and hiding out all over Bangladesh.

Source: Aljazeera