It was just 18 months ago that Daniel Noboa, 37, won Ecuador’s presidency, becoming the youngest man ever elected to the office.
Now, on Sunday, he faces the polls once more.
This time, however, a bigger prize is at play: a full four-year term in the presidential palace. Since Noboa’s last victory was in a snap election, he has been limited to serving out the remainder of his predecessor’s term.
In Sunday’s race, Noboa will face off against 15 contenders, including left-wing lawmaker Luisa Gonzalez, his main competition in the last election. The outcome of his so-called brief presidency is likely to be decided by the vote.
Noboa spearheaded several initiatives that expanded the scope of law enforcement, sometimes at the expense of oversight and civil liberties, when she took office. However, high levels of organized crime and violence have persisted in Ecuador.
Who are the candidates? What issues are voters’ primary concerns? What can polls reveal about the status of race, then? In this brief explanation, we answer all of those questions.
What is Ecuador’s voting process?
On Sunday, February 9, there will be the first round of voting. A candidate must have a 10-point advantage over the candidate in second place in order to win with all or more of the vote, or at least 40 percent of the vote.
On April 13th, a second round of voting will feature the top two candidates if a candidate does not pass that threshold in the first round.
Is there only one job available in the presidency?
No. This is a general election. The 151-member National Assembly will also have open seats for all members, and those elected to the legislature will also have four-year terms.
Why has Noboa’s term in office been so short?
President Noboa was first elected in October 2023 after his predecessor Guillermo Lasso, faced with impeachment proceedings, invoked a constitutional mechanism known as the “muerte cruzada” or “crossed death”.
No previous president had used the Muerte Cruz. Not only did it end Lasso’s term, but it also dissolved Ecuador’s legislature, triggering snap elections.
At the time, Noboa was a first-term member of the National Assembly, and he was among the elected officials affected by the muerte cruzada.
Noboa, the heir to a banana-business family, eventually founded his own party and ran for president, winning in a close race that made it to the second round. He was 35 years old at the time.
He then completed what would have been the remainder of Lasso’s term, a period of 18 months. Now, he is seeking a full four-year term of his own.
What do the polls say?
A sizable field of candidates will challenge Noboa. However, Luisa Gonzalez is likely to be his main rival, despite the fact that he lost to her in 2023 by less than four points.
Gonzalez represents the Citizen Revolution, a left-leaning organization that was founded by Rafael Correa.
Most polls indicate Noboa is in the lead but not enough to avoid a run-off. The election will likely move on to a second round, which pits Noboa against Gonzalez, just like it did in 2023.
Polls show no other candidate with enough support to challenge the frontrunners, but pre-election polling doesn’t always tell the whole story. Before the first round of voting in 2023, Noboa himself figuratively lacked voter intention registration.
Who else is running?
Some familiar faces are in the lineup. Jan Topic, a right-wing businessman who ran in 2023, is competing again, reprising his call for iron-fisted – or “mano dura” – policies to combat crime.
Leonidas Iza, president of the country’s powerful Indigenous confederation CONAIE, is also a returning candidate. He campaigned for greater sovereignty and opportunities for indigenous peoples and was a well-known critic of former President Lasso.
Another candidate is likely to serve as a reminder of Ecuador’s struggles with violence.
In 2023, the presidential race was rocked when an anticorruption candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, was shot and killed after leaving a rally, shortly before the vote. He had aimed to draw attention to the link between government corruption and organized crime.
His former running mate, Andrea Gonzalez, will be in the race on Sunday.
What are the results of the polls regarding the National Assembly?
The Noboa and Gonzalez parties take the lead over the rest of the field in the race for control of the legislature.
Most polls in January showed Noboa’s National Democratic Action (ADN) party leading Gonzalez’s Citizen Revolution (RC) by varying margins. In just one poll, the RC surpassed the ADN by about three points.
Currently, the National Assembly has 137 spots, and Citizen Revolution holds the most seats of any single party: 48. But after Sunday’s election, the National Assembly will expand to 151 seats, and Noboa’s party is expected to make significant gains.
What issues are most important to voters?
A number of issues have come up as top priorities in recent polls, including the rising cost of living, a lack of good economic opportunities, and a number of electrical blackouts that have hampered locals’ lives.
However, a survey conducted by the data provider Comunicaliza in January found that crime and insecurity are two issues that stand out above all others. It outranked the second-highest concern, the lack of employment opportunities, by about 14 points.
According to Ivan Briscoe, an expert on Latin American politics at the International Crisis Group, “this is concern number one” in survey after survey, it has been proven.
Why is it that Ecuador has such a problem with violence?
Ecuador was once perceived as a safer and more stable nation than other South American nations. In a region otherwise known for cocaine trafficking and cultivation, it gained the reputation of an “island of peace.”
The nation has been shocked by an increase in violence and organized crime in recent years, though.
“Ecuador had 7, 000 murders last year with a population of 18 million people, making it the highest murder rate in South America. And that’s in a country which for decades was known as a peaceful country”, Briscoe said.
“It throws a light on the state’s inability to respond, but also raises the question of the complicity of state officials in criminal ventures and, thus, the scale of corruption”.
Ecuador sits on the Pacific coast between Colombia and Peru, the world’s largest producers of cocaine.
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts say drug-trafficking groups started to push into Ecuador’s territory, seeking to take advantage of the country’s ports.
Many young people in Ecuador were left without jobs and vulnerable to recruitment from criminal networks as a result of the pandemic.
Noboa has held his predecessors accountable for allowing the growth of cocaine in Ecuador. In October, his government announced that the production of coca – the raw ingredient for the drug – was detected on approximately 2, 000 hectares (4, 942 acres) of land.
What solutions have been put forward?
Voters have largely believed in harsh solutions.
For instance, the nation voted largely in favor of reforms that would formalize the military’s role in public security and impose harsher penalties for crimes like drug trafficking in April.
Noboa has publicly stated his desire to impose stricter civil laws in order to advance security.
Noboa declared a state of internal armed conflict in January 2024, expanding the scope of the military’s influence on law enforcement activities and declaring that the nation was “at war” with criminal organizations.
Thus far, the results have been mixed. The murder rate is still significantly higher than it was before the pandemic, despite a slight decline in 2024.
Additionally, allegations of abuses have surfaced that raise questions about the military’s growing authority. In one case, Guayaquil’s port city of Guayaquil’s surveillance footage showed a military truck kidnapping four teenagers. Later, charred remains were discovered close to a military installation.
But Briscoe said that, for the time being, Ecuadorean politics is dominated by tough-on-crime rhetoric and ideas.
Nobody will recommend engaging in negotiations with criminal organizations. That is not on the agenda of any candidate”, he said.
He added, however, that addressing the root causes of crime in Ecuador would not be enough.
“When you can’t leave your house because of crime, you will want the state to respond”, he said.
Source: Aljazeera
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